The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the coming quarters. But there are risks to this view - notably a renewed surge in food inflation and a flare up of problems in the banking sector. And while India is positioning itself well to avoid very large tariffs from the US, that could prove not to be the case. The direct impact of a punitive tariff would be small, but the indirect impact through a loss of business confidence would be larger.
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