India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump’s triple tariff threat We will learn next week whether or not India's concessions to President Trump work in staving off (or reducing) a US reciprocal tariff. But India will take cold comfort from the fact that Japan and... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equities regain some poise, less protectionist trade policy India's benchmark Sensex equity index has just had its best week in almost three years, but the big picture is that the market is still down 11% from its peak and we don't think this is the start of a... 21st March 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Is the RBI changing tack on the rupee? Movements in the Indian rupee - which hit a fresh low of 85.9/$ his week - appear to have been bigger under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra than they were under his predecessor, raising the... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
