India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Limited macro risks from weaker rupee The Indian rupee is hovering close to record lows against the US dollar and we think it will hit a new low of 90/$ by the end of the year. This presents limited macro risk: the inflation pass through... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: What we learnt from the Modi-Trump meeting India would appear to be one of the most exposed countries worldwide to a US reciprocal tariff. But concessions made in the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump this week raise hope that India... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Budget, RBI, Delhi election, Modi-Trump meeting A busy week for domestic policymaking began with the Finance Ministry showing fiscal restraint in the FY25/26 Union Budget and concluded with the RBI kicking off its easing cycle, with an election in... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Looking for clarity on Trump tariffs and H-1B visas Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10%... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Is the RBI changing tack on the rupee? Movements in the Indian rupee - which hit a fresh low of 85.9/$ his week - appear to have been bigger under the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra than they were under his predecessor, raising the... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee’s decline won’t prevent eventual rate cuts On the face of it, the fall in the rupee to record lows poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank’s MPC, which earlier today voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But the bigger picture is that... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Maharashtra vote, RBI, a big call on Indian equities For the past three years India has been the darling of global investors, but its stock market has come under pressure in recent weeks amid signs of a bubble forming and we've made a big call that... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Air pollution, friendshoring, Governor Das to stay? Air quality levels in India have been among the worst on record this week and the country's reliance on coal suggests that this will remain an economic headwind for a long time to come. Otherwise... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment? It might be tempting to view recent developments - including a breakthrough in talks with China on the disputed Himalayan border and the diplomatic spat with Canada - as signalling that India is... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy cooling The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance, this suggests that monetary policy easing is... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
