India Economics Weekly Why the Maharashtra election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Maharashtra holds more significance than most others. Economically it is India's most important state and developments there... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment? It might be tempting to view recent developments - including a breakthrough in talks with China on the disputed Himalayan border and the diplomatic spat with Canada - as signalling that India is... 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy cooling The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance, this suggests that monetary policy easing is... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI shifts stance, FTSE Russell, state election results The shift in the RBI's official policy stance, alongside the announcement of India's inclusion in the FTSE Russell EM bond index and state election results that should ease fiscal risks, has... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Make in India: 10 years on Though there have been pockets of success, PM Modi's flagship "Make in India" policy initiative - launched 10 years ago this week - has done little to improve the global competitiveness of India's... 27th September 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fed easing, Q4 Outlook, Sensex surge The start of the Fed's easing cycle won't automatically cause the RBI to follow suit; we still think it will keep rates on hold in its next meeting in October. But the right domestic conditions will... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Courting China, commodities, consumer prices Signs of a further thawing in relations between India and China provide more evidence of a growing theme of countries courting Chinese investment, not as a rejection of the potential benefits from US... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debate over inflation target misses the point A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly SEBI in Hindenburg’s crosshairs, Sino-Indian relations The Adani Group/Hindenburg Research saga took a new twist this week as the US short-seller alleged that India's markets regulator, SEBI, had a major conflict of interests in investigating the... 16th August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Questions for the RBI in the rupee’s decline The rupee was one of only a few currencies to weaken against the dollar this week. Could a lack of investor confidence in the currency pose problems in the months ahead for the RBI? 9th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI’s bond restrictions, policy meeting preview The RBI's surprise move this week to restrict foreign access in some long-dated sovereign bonds highlights the bumpy path for foreign investors as policymakers balance a push for more overseas... 2nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi gets the memo on employment The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
