India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of years. While inflation has eased over recent months, it will be a gradual grind back to the 4% midpoint of the RBI’s 2-6% target range. That suggests to us that the central bank is unlikely to pivot just yet. We think rate cuts will materialise in Q3 2024.
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