Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth to almost zero for Q2 and Q3. Next week we expect to learn that euro-zone GDP rose by 0.3% q/q in Q1 but only thanks to big increases in Ireland and Spain. And we think inflation will have been unchanged at 2.2% in April.
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