Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Fiscal policy and the ECB This week has brought a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to defence spending and fiscal policy more generally. While there are reasons to be cautious about the boost that this will provide to... 7th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (February) CPIF inflation rose in February to 2.9%, supporting our view that the Riksbank’s loosening cycle is over. 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (February) While we still think the SNB is most likely to err on the side of caution and cut its policy rate by a further 25bp on the 20 th March, higher than expected inflation in February increases the chance... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) Euro-zone prime property yields fell slightly in Q4, led by offices and industrial. However, a slowdown in rental gains as vacancy climbed higher meant that capital value growth slowed slightly... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q4 last year as alternative asset yields rose while property yields edged lower, leaving only the prime office sector fairly valued. That said, the falls we... 19th February 2025 · 0 mins read
