Europe Economics Weekly No economic bazooka in German election manifestos The election manifestos of Germany’s main political parties, which were published this week, confirm that a radical change in economic policy and/or a big fiscal stimulus after the upcoming general... 20th December 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank divergence continues The Riksbank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% was widely anticipated and we expect it to cut just one last time next year, by 25bp in March. In contrast, Norges Bank left its policy... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by just 25bp today to 2.5% and it is unlikely to cut at its next meeting in January. Further ahead, we now expect just one more 25bp cut next year, in March, as we... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Next Thursday, we expect the Riksbank to reduce its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.5% as it closes in on the end of its loosening cycle. In contrast, we think Norges Bank will leave its policy rate... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than... 12th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024) This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe... 6th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy... 5th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (November) While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (November) The uptick in Swiss inflation in November is likely to prove short-lived and should not prevent the SNB from cutting interest rates again in December and further next year. 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024) Stable property yields and solid rental growth supported a second rise in prime all-property values in Q3. While there is still likely to be upward pressure on yields in some markets, property values... 21st November 2024 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q3 2024) Economic growth was surprisingly slow in the third quarter as sporting event-adjusted GDP increased by just 0.2% q/q, a sharp slowdown from the 0.5% recorded in Q2. This will further encourage the SNB... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
