Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q4 last year as alternative asset yields rose while property yields edged lower, leaving only the prime office sector fairly valued. That said, the falls we... 19th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump keeps Europe on its toes All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (January 2025) We think the 25bp policy rate cut that the Riksbank delivered today will be the final cut of this cycle as we expect the economy to rebound strongly this year. 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update The end is in sight for the Riksbank We think that next week the Riksbank will cut its policy rate for the final time this cycle, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.25%. After that, we do not see a need for policymakers to loosen policy any... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank prepares the ground for rate cuts Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March, almost certainly with a 25bp reduction to 4.25%. We think it will then loosen... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2025) Today’s policy announcement confirms that Norges Bank is likely to start cutting interest rates at its meeting in March. We think it will then loosen monetary policy a little more quickly than its... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank set for gradual loosening cycle December’s weaker-than-expected inflation outturn won’t sway Norges Bank: we still expect it to wait until March to start cutting interest rates. We suspect that it will then lower rates gradually... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (December) The fall in inflation in December will ease policymakers’ concerns about upside risks to inflation. We had previously been expecting them to wait until March before cutting the policy rate for a last... 8th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The fall in Swiss inflation in December suggests that the SNB’s decision to cut by a bumper 50bp in December was fully justified. We think the SNB will cut the policy rate by a further 25bp at its... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
