Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (March) Despite easing in March, CPIF inflation excluding energy remained elevated and is likely to remain high throughout this year. We are forecasting the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 2.25% over that... 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Higher interest rates weaken the recovery Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of... 27th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s next move will be to hike rates The Riksbank left both its policy rate and its interest rate forecasts unchanged at today’s meeting, suggesting that monetary policy will be on hold for the foreseeable future. And while policymakers... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB at the end of the cycle In the press conference following today’s SNB meeting, Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasised that inflation risks are mainly do the downside, suggesting that a further cut in June is possible. But we... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB’s last cut in the cycle We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy... 13th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
