The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are a handful of EM central banks (particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America) that have become more cautious over the last few months. Brazil still stands alone in hiking rates. Higher domestic inflation and US import tariffs, to the extent that they strengthen the US dollar, tilt the risk that EM policy rates will remain higher than we currently expect.
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