Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon technologies are likely to see higher investment and, ultimately, exports. But while EM producers will seek to leverage their position to secure investment and move up the value chain, we doubt that they will significantly reduce their dependence on commodities and, by implication, their sensitivity to price fluctuations.
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