The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We expect just one further 25bp interest rate cut this year, and our forecast for the base rate to end 2025 at 5.00% (down from 6.50% now) lies towards the hawkish end of consensus expectations.
This publication has been updated with additional analysis since the post-meeting press statement and press conference.
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