Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next...

19th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.)

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Parliamentary Election

The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Oct.)

The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for October suggest that the contraction in the economy in Q3 wasn’t the start of a renewed trend. With fiscal policy set to remain loose over the...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Presidential Election (First Round)

The surprise lead for an independent far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, in the first round of Romania’s presidential election raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking...

25th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, suggest that analysts’ expectations for an easing cycle to start in...

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to be followed by a further loss of momentum over the coming quarters. But, alongside CPI data which show that inflationary pressures...

13th November 2024 · 2 mins read