Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in Polish GDP in Q3 partly reflects the impact of flooding in September, the impact of which will reverse this quarter. Even so, we have become a bit more concerned about...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.)

13th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was accompanied by communications which support our view that monetary easing is still some way off...

17th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The communications alongside the decision by the Bank of Israel to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, underline that policymakers have grown more concerned about the escalation of...

9th October 2024 · 2 mins read