Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent... 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think there is limited scope for interest rate cuts this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to end the... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today was widely expected, and the hawkish communications suggest that policymakers are not going to bend to... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish forecast than the consensus... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 28th January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT), to 47.50%, was accompanied by cautious language in the statement. But given signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, we think... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the inflation backdrop is likely to prevent the restart of the easing cycle for some time. We don’t expect... 16th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, but the accompanying communications struck a slightly more dovish tone and we think that it will be in a position to cut... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Turkey last month, to 44.4%, points towards another 250bp interest rate cut, to 45.0%, at the next central bank meeting on 23rd January. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
