Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The 250bp interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT), to 47.50%, was accompanied by cautious language in the statement. But given signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, we think... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and the inflation backdrop is likely to prevent the restart of the easing cycle for some time. We don’t expect... 16th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, but the accompanying communications struck a slightly more dovish tone and we think that it will be in a position to cut... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Turkey last month, to 44.4%, points towards another 250bp interest rate cut, to 45.0%, at the next central bank meeting on 23rd January. 3rd January 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The unexpected decision by Russia’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today, rather than hike further, sparks a lot of questions about the central bank’s reaction function – and... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in November, to 47.1% y/y, suggests to us that a monetary easing cycle probably won’t start later this month as many analysts seem to be... 3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Parliamentary Election The centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) – the largest party in Romania’s current coalition – look set to win the most votes in the parliamentary election which took place on Sunday, but strong gains... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2024) The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for October suggest that the contraction in the economy in Q3 wasn’t the start of a renewed trend. With fiscal policy set to remain loose over the... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
