Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25%

We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the...

20th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

New FX forecasts, BoT independence under threat

We have finalised changes to our financial market forecasts following Donald Trump’s election victory. We think Asian currencies will weaken by 3-10% against the US dollar between now and the end of...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves in...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The National Bank of Romania left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, against a backdrop of stubborn above-target inflation and concerns about the loose fiscal stance ahead of elections...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed slows pace of rate cuts; independence probably safe

As expected, after a run of stronger activity and inflation data since it started its rate cutting cycle with a 50bp reduction in mid-September, the Fed opted for a more modest 25bp cut at the...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Budget means Bank of England won’t cut rates as fast and as far

While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow

Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024)

While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025

Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024)

The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024)

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read