Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) to hike its overnight lending rate from 44% to 46% today suggests that policymakers have been spooked by the market volatility yesterday and are keen to... 20th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds, but further rate cuts still on the cards The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate on hold at 7.50% today, but a minority of MPC members voted for a cut and we do not think the easing cycle is over. If inflation continues to surprise... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may pause the rate cutting cycle, but not for long While leaving interest rates at 4.50% today, the Bank of England seemed less committed to continuing to cut rates by 25bps every quarter. We had already been pondering this possibility and today’s... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed continues to project two 25bp rate cuts this year Although the FOMC stuck to its projection for two rate cuts this year, a growing number of officials share our view that further loosening is unlikely amid the increased upside risks to inflation... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the FOMC stuck to its median projection for two interest rate cuts this year, some officials now share our view that further loosening is unlikely and we continue to think that Fed officials... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.5% by 2027 With the Bank of Japan sounding a bit more worried about downside risks to activity from US tariffs than about upside risks to inflation, we’re pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is... 13th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Little chance of a Powell put as Fed stands pat Comments from Chair Jerome Powell suggest the latest batch of soft activity data will not cause the FOMC to reassess its view that there is “no hurry” to cut interest rates again. Admittedly, some... 12th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
