The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent underperformance of the forint. We think that most of the weakness can instead be explained by other factors, and that the currency would fall a lot further if the government were to take more serious steps to interfere in the central bank’s monetary policy decisions. Elsewhere, we are holding an online briefing on Tuesday to discuss Russia's presidential election next week and what another six years of Putin could mean for Russia and the global economy. (Sign up here).
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