Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set for a slow disinflation process Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in... 5th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would Trump mean for EM monetary policy? A victory for Donald Trump in the US election would probably result in higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. That’s an environment in which central banks in EMs with strained balance sheets... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: inflation softens in September but upside risks rising Israel’s economy is under strain from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, with supply constraints both holding back growth and causing inflation concerns to build. The softer-than-expected inflation... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the... 19th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
