Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth has peaked but war adds to uncertainty GDP growth in Russia came in stronger than most expected last year at 4.1%, but this was accompanied by significant overheating and policymakers lost control of inflation. We think the period of rapid... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside inflation risks build across CEE The latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been stronger than expected, and leading indicators suggest that inflation across the region may be higher than we previously... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish assets may keep doing well despite global challenges Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as... 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four quick points on Europe and the "trade war" This weekend’s US trade policy announcements and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Europe raise the question of whether there is a bigger risk to the euro-zone than we had thought. This Update... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel after the war: what comes next? The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can... 16th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Russia-Ukraine gas transit stop is not a game changer The termination of European imports of pipeline natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will only increase the EU’s dependence on imports of LNG and ensure that energy prices there remain much higher than... 2nd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
