Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices will be fairly rangebound in the coming months. In particular, we expect energy prices to remain close to current highs on concerns about supply. The macroeconomic backdrop for commodity prices looks more positive in 2024. Demand for many commodities should receive a boost as developed economy central banks embark on monetary easing. What’s more, we expect the US dollar to slip back and risk appetite to improve. That said, subdued growth in China will remain a headwind, particularly for the oil market which has been a major beneficiary this year from the lifting of travel restrictions in China.
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