Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Commodity prices to fall back

We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to...

27th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and a bit of a recovery in...

8th March 2024 · 1 min read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic...

2nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Interest rate cuts across advanced economies this year will give some boost to economic activity...

3rd January 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Another sour week for oil, precious metals to shine

Gold and silver prices soared this week on renewed optimism that the Fed had hiked to the peak of its monetary policy mountain. We expect prices to rise further when interest rates begin to be cut...

17th November 2023 · 5 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the...

3rd November 2023 · 1 min read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices...

8th September 2023 · 1 min read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (Aug. 2023)

We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start...

8th August 2023 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

US data the key driver of prices next week

Dealmaking was a major driver of commodity prices this week. The 11th hour extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative alleviated fears of Ukraine’s grain exports being cut off from world markets...

19th May 2023 · 6 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Demand concerns a lingering headwind for prices

Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand have intensified and risk appetite has soured. We think prices will continue to struggle over the next few months as...

16th May 2023 · 13 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Russian petroleum product exports to struggle

The EU’s ban on imports of Russian petroleum products will come into force on Sunday, which could raise EU fuel prices and weigh on Russia’s product exports. However, we suspect Russia will offer...

3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read

Precious Metals Update

South Africa’s platinum group metal supply to struggle

The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these...

3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Huge risks associated with China reopening

The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is...

16th December 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Outlook

The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet

Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown...

16th December 2022 · 2 mins read