Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0% annualised on average over the next four quarters. For now, we forecast inflation to just about remain within the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range over the next year, but it will be a different story if the government implements retaliatory tariffs on a broader set of imports from the US. Given the weak outlook for the economy, we have revised down our forecast for the Bank’s terminal policy rate to 2.0%.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services