We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still, we think the CBN will be wary of the inflationary risks stemming from the government’s loose fiscal stance, and will move cautiously. Rate cuts are unlikely to come until May at the earliest, with the policy rate ultimately falling by 400bp to 23.50% by year-end.
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