South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major structural impediments to growth that stretch far beyond the most current pressing issue of the day, loadshedding. We see little prospect of these being tackled, particularly as next year’s election nears. The upshot is that the economy will do well to expand by more than 1.0-1.5% a year over the medium term.
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