US Housing Market Update The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices Our forecast that earnings growth will rise to a nine-year high of 3.5% by the middle of 2019 might be expected to give house prices a boost, particularly given the lack of inventory. However, the... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices Single-family rental yields have been declining in most states over the past six years, with strong house price gains in the West leading to relatively large yield drops there. With interest rates on... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Narrowing in spread tempers rise in mortgage rates The impact of higher Treasury yields on mortgage rates has been softened by a narrowing of the spread between the two. That reflects a fall in the option cost of prepayment risk, as higher mortgage... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will first-time buyers stay away in 2018? The decline in the first-time buyer share, to a two-year low, over the second half of last year reflected a lack of starter homes for sale, rather than a demand deficiency. With the lumber price at 14... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rental investors beginning to sell up? A decline in the stock of rental homes may simply be noise. But it may also be an early sign that rental investors are taking advantage of high prices and low inventory to sell up. If so, and if it... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A change to our house price coverage We are making a change to our regular coverage of house prices, and will now provide a data response on the FHFA house price index, rather than the CoreLogic index. That change reflects both practical... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QM change won’t turbo-charge the mortgage market A proposed change to the Dodd-Frank Act will make it easier for small banks to originate mortgages that meet the Qualified Mortgage standard. In theory, that could lead to the return of mortgages... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will apartment rental growth slow further in 2018? A multifamily construction boom during 2015 and 2016 has boosted apartment vacancy rates, and pushed rental growth to a six-year low. But developers are already scaling back multifamily construction... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Boom in apartment building helps children move out A boom in apartment construction has helped push the share of 18-24 year olds living with their parents to a six-year low. But, with no corresponding rise in the inventory of affordable homes for sale... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did the hurricanes lead to a surge in delinquencies? The first report on mortgage delinquencies since the September hurricanes shows a large rise in payment problems in both Texas and Florida. But we suspect that primarily represents borrowers who could... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Annual house price growth has peaked The rise in annual house price growth to a three-year high of 6.1% in August raises the prospect that our forecast for a 6% gain by the end of the year will prove too conservative. But, with credit... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tax plan cuts the mortgage interest deduction The tax bill released today halved the size of new mortgages from which interest can be deducted, from $1 million to $500,000. That will hit prices of homes valued at over $500,000, and the... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update NAFTA concerns boost lumber price Concerns that the US will withdraw from NAFTA has led to a jump in the price of lumber. Prices are now at a 4½ year high. However given that lumber accounts for a relatively small share of overall... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are new homes shrinking? The average floor area of new homes has been shrinking over the past 18-months. Smaller lot sizes may be partly responsible. But we suspect the key driver is increased construction and land costs... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are concerns about labour shortages justified? The slowdown in construction employment and earnings growth looks, at first glance, to be inconsistent with builders’ growing complaints about labour shortages. But with job openings rising, and house... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home valuations are not at dangerous levels A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
