US Housing Market Update Rise in natural vacancy rate may support rental growth It is possible that the large number of new apartments entering the market over the past year has acted to increase the ‘natural’ vacancy rate. Uncertainty about achievable rents in new buildings... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Californian inventory rises, but for the wrong reasons The rise in the number of homes for sale in California, to its highest level in a year, is not the good news it first appears. The increase is due to a drop in home sales, rather than a rise in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Banks report rise in demand from riskier borrowers We doubt the rise in mortgage demand from higher risk borrowers reported in the latest Fannie Mae survey will lead to a surge in mortgage lending. Cautious lenders and regulations mean that this... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising incomes good news for rental growth After eight years of stagnation, earnings growth finally looks set to accelerate. Household incomes have also received a boost from the tax cuts, which has helped raise rental growth expectations... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rising house price expectations a concern? House price expectations have risen to an eight-year high on some measures, which raises the risk of a dangerous upward spiral in price growth developing. However, tight mortgage lending standards... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is housing equity withdrawal falling back? Against our expectation for a slow recovery, housing equity withdrawal has instead fallen back over the past year. In large part that reflects subdued home sales which, in turn, are being constrained... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are Western city house prices overheating? Strong house price gains in Western cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Denver have pushed prices significantly above their previous highs seen just prior to the crash of the mid-2000s. However... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rental households not a risk for rental growth The number of households in the rental sector has seen year-on-year declines in each of the last four quarters. But an equivalent supply response, with some homes shifting to the homeowner sector and... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage demand With the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 3% earlier this week, mortgage rates are set to trend higher. That will push refinancing activity down to 18-year lows by the end of the year. Purchase demand... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern Fannie Mae’s announcement last August that it would accept mortgages with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50% triggered a sharp rise in the share of high DTI mortgages. But we doubt that change... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth will continue to outperform A divergence in rental vacancy rates over the past year, with single-family vacancies reaching a 21-year low as multifamily vacancies have risen, has meant rental growth for single-family homes has... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding One factor shared by states with particularly low levels of single-family permits is a high level of negative equity. Those states will have experienced the biggest housing market booms and busts... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices Our forecast that earnings growth will rise to a nine-year high of 3.5% by the middle of 2019 might be expected to give house prices a boost, particularly given the lack of inventory. However, the... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices Single-family rental yields have been declining in most states over the past six years, with strong house price gains in the West leading to relatively large yield drops there. With interest rates on... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Narrowing in spread tempers rise in mortgage rates The impact of higher Treasury yields on mortgage rates has been softened by a narrowing of the spread between the two. That reflects a fall in the option cost of prepayment risk, as higher mortgage... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will first-time buyers stay away in 2018? The decline in the first-time buyer share, to a two-year low, over the second half of last year reflected a lack of starter homes for sale, rather than a demand deficiency. With the lumber price at 14... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
