US Housing Market Update Californian rent controls may boost new developments Rent controls usually discourage new rental developments. But the Californian bill that is set to be signed into law may in fact boost the construction of new units. New rental buildings are exempt... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Why have mortgage spreads widened? The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will rents perform as the economy slows? Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to benefit from lower mortgage rates With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in sentiment good news for starts, not sales The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update What’s driving the gap between mortgages and sales? The number of mortgage applications for home purchase jumped earlier this year, but those buyers came up against the tightest market conditions for 40-years. Increased competition for homes crowded... 2nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Drop in homeownership rate won’t be reversed soon A steady decline in home sales last year pushed the homeownership rate to a 1½-year low in the second quarter, and we doubt it will recover over the next couple of years. A slowing economy will... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Cut in premium won’t halt drop in FHA market share bill which recently passed the House to cut the FHA upfront mortgage premium by 25 bps for first-time buyers who take a financial management course is too small to halt the downward trend in the FHA... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Google’s homes will have little impact on prices Any new housing in the San Francisco Bay area is welcome, but Google’s plan to help build 20,000 homes over the next decade will have little impact on prices. The San Francisco metro has the tightest... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in rent expectations won’t boost rental growth Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multifamily starts set to ease as demand weakens The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in rates won’t trigger a surge in mortgage demand The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shift toward building cheaper homes will support sales Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price falls in San Francisco to be modest Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
