US Housing Market Update Rise in rent expectations won’t boost rental growth Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multifamily starts set to ease as demand weakens The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in rates won’t trigger a surge in mortgage demand The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shift toward building cheaper homes will support sales Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price falls in San Francisco to be modest Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tougher FHA standards to drag on housing demand The introduction of tougher lending standards for mortgages insured by the FHA will provide another headwind to housing demand this year. While the removal of similar standards in 2016 did not have a... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing labour shortages will help cut building backlog The sharp fall in lumber prices over the past 10 months has failed to halt the rise in single-family homes which have been authorised, but not started. Labour shortages now appear to be the key... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in mortgage rates fails to boost buying sentiment Even as mortgage interest rates have fallen to 15-month lows, the share of Americans saying now is a good time to buy a home has stayed close to 10-year lows. While some rise in buying sentiment over... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did homeowners really surge in 2018? According to the Homeownership and Vacancies survey, homeowners surged to a record high in 2018. If true, that would throw doubt on the widely held view that the housing market slowed last year. But... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Closing rate hits record high, but not for long The share of mortgage applications that are approved has reached its highest since records began in 2011. With mortgage lending standards essentially unchanged, that implies borrower quality has... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeowner vacancy to stay low despite slowdown The homeowner vacancy rate dropped to a 25-year low at the end of last year, and we expect it will stay low even as existing home sales tread water over the next couple of years. Low interest rates... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders right to feel confident The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash-out refinancing set for further gains High levels of home equity and falling mortgage interest rates mean the number of cash-out refinances will reach a 10-year high over the next couple of years. But tight credit standards and cautious... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Smaller tax refunds a headwind for house prices Tax returns processed so far indicate households are set for smaller refunds this year. For most, the drop in expected income will not be enough to derail plans to buy a home. But, to the extent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
