US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices? Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom? The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts? Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How keen are households to buy homes? The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage applications are understating housing demand Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away? Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery? Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How important are foreclosures for housing inventory? The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage lending standards being eased too far? Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
