US Housing Market Update Are mortgage lending standards being eased too far? Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate has finally found a floor Our call over two years ago that the homeownership rate would see further declines has proved broadly correct. But with foreclosures now back to historical norms, and credit conditions gradually... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing credit conditions are beginning to boost FTB numbers Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How tight are conditions in the rental market? On the basis of past form, the fact the rental vacancy rate has hit a 30-year low would suggest rental growth is set to surge. But the drop in the vacancy rate is being exaggerated by a rise in the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fannie Mae launches new housing sentiment indicator The new Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae has a good track record in forecasting measures of housing market activity. While future performance may not be as impressive, the drop in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are home purchase mortgage applications so subdued? The first quarter’s recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase appears to have been derailed by a lack of earnings growth and the resulting deterioration in affordability. While earnings... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Could prospect of a rate rise boost activity in the short term? The housing market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, there is some evidence that a gentle rise in rates can spur some potential buyers to get into the market before... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Looser credit conditions will support mortgage recovery Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Labour shortages won’t derail homebuilding recovery Recent survey data suggest that the recovery in housing starts would have been stronger if not for shortages of labour within some specialised trades. But although a scarcity of labour may be... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have D.C. home prices hit a wall? Negative house price growth in D.C. in the first quarter is a worrying development given that the economy has underperformed and housing looks highly overvalued. This doesn’t necessarily signal the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s holding first-time buyers back? There is no evidence to suggest that homeownership aspirations amongst young households have diminished in recent years. And some of the cyclical factors holding back demand have also eased sharply... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are labour shortages still holding back homebuilding? Anecdotal evidence suggests that labour shortages continue to hold back homebuilding. However, there are few signs in the macroeconomic data of a widespread problem. Instead, we expect stronger... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is household formation set for a rebound? A fall in the share of young adults living with their parents should provide a boost to household formation over the next few years. This is an upside risk to our forecasts for sales and housing... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
