US Housing Market Update Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up? Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts? According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is top of the pack Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices? Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom? The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts? Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How keen are households to buy homes? The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage applications are understating housing demand Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away? Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery? Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How important are foreclosures for housing inventory? The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read