US Housing Market Update Will home movers be left stranded by rising mortgage rates? As interest rates rise, one concern is that a reluctance to give up a record low mortgage rate will deter Americans from moving home, restricting sales. But while that may put some households off... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the young ever move out? Despite an improving economic backdrop, the share of young adults living with their parents increased yet again in 2016. In part, that may reflect the influence of structural demographic factors as... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The wall will constrain, but not derail, housing starts As it stands, construction of the wall along the southern border is still very much on Trump’s agenda. Alongside a rise in other infrastructure spending, that is likely to worsen labour and material... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Home sales can withstand the coming rise in mortgage rates In contrast to the rise in mortgage rates following the 2013 taper tantrum, the latest jump in rates is due to expectations of a fiscal stimulus, not concerns about a less supportive monetary policy... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update No need for panic over coming drop in multifamily starts The latest NAHB survey on builders’ expectations for multifamily production points to a 15% drop in starts over the next year. But with the demand for rental accommodation set to hold up, we don’t... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the new-build premium really falling? The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership? Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is Airbnb behind the high number of vacant homes? While the rising popularity of Airbnb may have worsened housing shortages in some cities, it is hard to blame the apartment sharing website on the nationally high level of vacant homes. Rather, homes... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can we learn from the Zillow Confidence Index? At the national level, the Zillow index of housing market confidence offers a similar perspective to other measures of housing market sentiment. But with its short history and infrequent publication... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up? Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts? According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is top of the pack Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
