US Housing Market Update Rising participation to provide less of a lift to housing The participation rate for younger Americans had risen to a 10-year high by the end of 2018, with women driving most of that gain. That will have supported both rental and home purchase demand. But... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to fall despite cut in Fed MBS holdings The reduction in MBS held on the Fed’s balance sheet is, for now, set to continue in 2019. But while the announcement of MBS purchases in late 2008 led to a sharp drop in mortgage rates, we don’t... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Shutdown will lift delinquencies, but not foreclosures Households struggling to pay their mortgage thanks to the government shutdown will be offered forbearance. That won’t prevent a rise in the mortgage delinquency rate, but with back pay guaranteed it... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Earnings accelerate, but rents won’t follow suit The acceleration in earnings growth to close to a 10-year high in December will not boost rental growth. While stronger earnings will support rental demand, the large number of new apartments being... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is bottom of the pack Our forecast for a rise in house prices of 2% in 2019 is close to the bottom of consensus. That view is supported by evidence that housing market conditions have loosened, and that the size of... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower interest rates not enough to boost home sales We expect home sales will end 2020 only slightly higher than they are today. Admittedly, the drop in mortgage interest rates seen over the past few weeks has given a boost to mortgage applications... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Surge in new home supply won’t crash house prices On past form the jump in the months’ supply of new homes to an eight-year high would be consistent with outright falls in national house prices. However, the existing home inventory is not far off... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update It’s not all bad news in the housing market Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in adjustable-rate mortgage share not a concern Rising interest rates have led to an increase in the share of mortgages originated with an adjustable rate (ARMs). But the market share is still small, and the products have not been targeted at... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price crash unlikely A sharp drop in the share of homes seeing an increase in value over the past year is ringing alarm bells in some quarters. But the fact that housing demand is flat lining, rather than contracting and... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricane Florence and mortgage delinquencies Experience from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma last year suggests the share of delinquent mortgages in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia will rise following Hurricane Florence. However, with the... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
