US Housing Market Update Drop in lumber price a small positive for housing starts There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Affordability at 10-year low, but no need to panic Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Slowing demand a downside risk for housing starts Alongside lot, labour and material shortages, builders are now having to contend with growing evidence that the sales environment is becoming more testing. While the strong labour market, and lack of... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Americans have not forgotten that house prices can fall The share of Americans who point to high house prices as a reason not to buy looks elevated in relation to the level of real house prices and mortgage affordability. That may reflect memories of the... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in natural vacancy rate may support rental growth It is possible that the large number of new apartments entering the market over the past year has acted to increase the ‘natural’ vacancy rate. Uncertainty about achievable rents in new buildings... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Californian inventory rises, but for the wrong reasons The rise in the number of homes for sale in California, to its highest level in a year, is not the good news it first appears. The increase is due to a drop in home sales, rather than a rise in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Banks report rise in demand from riskier borrowers We doubt the rise in mortgage demand from higher risk borrowers reported in the latest Fannie Mae survey will lead to a surge in mortgage lending. Cautious lenders and regulations mean that this... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rising incomes good news for rental growth After eight years of stagnation, earnings growth finally looks set to accelerate. Household incomes have also received a boost from the tax cuts, which has helped raise rental growth expectations... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rising house price expectations a concern? House price expectations have risen to an eight-year high on some measures, which raises the risk of a dangerous upward spiral in price growth developing. However, tight mortgage lending standards... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is housing equity withdrawal falling back? Against our expectation for a slow recovery, housing equity withdrawal has instead fallen back over the past year. In large part that reflects subdued home sales which, in turn, are being constrained... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are Western city house prices overheating? Strong house price gains in Western cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Denver have pushed prices significantly above their previous highs seen just prior to the crash of the mid-2000s. However... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rental households not a risk for rental growth The number of households in the rental sector has seen year-on-year declines in each of the last four quarters. But an equivalent supply response, with some homes shifting to the homeowner sector and... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage demand With the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 3% earlier this week, mortgage rates are set to trend higher. That will push refinancing activity down to 18-year lows by the end of the year. Purchase demand... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern Fannie Mae’s announcement last August that it would accept mortgages with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50% triggered a sharp rise in the share of high DTI mortgages. But we doubt that change... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth will continue to outperform A divergence in rental vacancy rates over the past year, with single-family vacancies reaching a 21-year low as multifamily vacancies have risen, has meant rental growth for single-family homes has... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding One factor shared by states with particularly low levels of single-family permits is a high level of negative equity. Those states will have experienced the biggest housing market booms and busts... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
