US Employment Report Preview Employment & wage growth continue to slow We expect the July employment report to show a continued gradual slowdown in employment growth and a decline in wage growth to a two-year low. That should give Fed officials a little more confidence... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend continues We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions easing We estimate that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a more moderate 180,000. That would be the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, but... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand cooling We expect the March employment report to show that the labour market was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil, with non-farm payrolls rising by a more modest 200,000 and annual wage growth... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to drop back to trend After the blowout 517,000 gain in January, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February. But given the potential impact of weather and seasonality effects in January there... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown in jobs growth coming We expect a more modest 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January. The annual benchmark revisions may also show a sharper slowdown in employment growth over the second half of last year than... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing more markedly We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth easing; wage growth slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains take another step down We are pencilling in a further step down in non-farm payroll growth to 225,000 in October and we expect that payrolls will be falling outright by early 2023. 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown to come We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 275,000 in September, but a much sharper slowdown looks likely as the Fed’s aggressive tightening feeds through. 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market still hot We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment holding up better than activity We forecast that non-farm payrolls rose by 250,000 in July which would represent a continuation of the slowdown in the labour market, but would still be far from recessionary territory . 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing, but no sign of collapse We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July. Payrolls... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing We expect that non-farm payroll growth slowed in May, albeit to a still strong 300,000 . 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand will continue to cool We expect that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 375,000. Alongside rebounding participation, that easing in labour demand looks set to drive wage... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
