US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains at risk of stalling We expect a further slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 400,000 in November, as the recovery in the employment-intensive restaurant and leisure sectors stall. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of recovery continues to slow We expect employment growth to have slowed further in October, with non-farm payrolls rising by 600,000 – albeit partly because of another drop-back in temporary employment as operations for the 2020... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shifting down the gears We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 800,000 in September, as the pace of private sector rehiring slows further and the recent burst of Census hiring goes into reverse. 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Census hiring to provide a boost We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest one million in August and without the restarting of field operations for the 2020 Census, which probably added 250,000 jobs, employment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market recovery slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment rose by “only” 1.0 million in July, as the renewed spread of the virus started to weigh on the economy. With employment currently still 15 million below... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview The long road back We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by five million in June, as more furloughed employees returned to work. That would be another encouraging sign of the strength of the initial... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview As bad as it gets? We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by 9 million in May, taking the cumulative decline since February close to 30 million and pushing the unemployment rate above 20%. 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Catastrophe We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%. That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Millions of job losses coming The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it... 26th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls powering ahead for now We expect February’s employment report to ease some of the recent fears about the health of the economy, with non-farm payrolls rising by 230,000 and the unemployment rate dropping back to a 50-year... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth accelerating, but revisions a spoiler Our model suggests that non-farm payroll growth will accelerate to 185,000 in January, from 145,000. The overall tone of the report will not be as positive, however, with the annual benchmark... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued solid gains in payrolls We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well. 2nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Strength of payrolls at odds with broader evidence We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a decent 170,000 in November, flattered by the return of striking GM workers. We wouldn’t take too much comfort from that, however, because recent gains look... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview GM strike to hit payrolls hard We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by just 25,000 in October, mainly reflecting disruption caused by the strike at GM. Even excluding that temporary hit, however, the underlying pace of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a muted 125,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
