US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Storms on the horizon for West Coast port markets After a prolonged period of weakness, the West Coast ports have seen an improvement in trade volumes recently. However, industrial demand in these markets remains very weak and growing headwinds –... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update San Francisco the poster child for the donut effect With downtowns generally suffering most from the growth in remote work, the hardest-hit cities such as San Francisco are now seeing this impact other revenue streams too, not least tourism. While... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Share of remote work key to global office performance The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US... 29th April 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey highlights diverging market views While overall surveyor sentiment remains negative, the Q1 RICS survey appeared to show a divergence in views between respondents of where in the cycle the market currently is. We think the apparent... 26th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Permanent online shift is mixed news for retail The latest e-commerce statistics suggest that the pandemic has left US online sales on a permanently higher trend. That will be bad news for retail rents generally, though the detailed data also hint... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consensus still moving in our direction The latest consensus figures have moved closer to our own total returns forecasts for the next three years. But they continue to expect a lower path for Treasury yields implying a smaller cap rate... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville, Jacksonville and Austin top for remote workers Our updated remote worker preference scores again highlight Nashville as the most attractive metro for remote workers, while San Jose is the least attractive. The winners continue to be predominantly... 13th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment activity unlikely to improve in 2024 Commercial real estate investment saw its worst year in over a decade last year. Most brokers seem to expect a recovery in investment activity this year as the Fed cuts interest rates and distressed... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs? The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single and multi-family construction on different paths Following the huge fall in multi-family starts in January, we suspect the apartment sector will continue to be a drag on new development this year. But construction of single-family dwellings will... 19th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Offices still the most likely source of distress While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at... 5th February 2024 · 5 mins read
