Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 12th November 2024, 3:00PM GMT Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver? Which economies and markets...
US Commercial Property Update ‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less... 28th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the capital value recovery? The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment performance to top consensus estimates Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the... 21st October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate? On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway... 7th October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Mall divergence to persist as luxury boosts top-tier assets While we have been talking up the prospects for retail, malls remain the underperforming subsector in our forecasts. But that covers a wide range of likely performance. Indeed, as luxury retailers... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Innovation clusters to drive flex R&D performance The flex industrial subsector outperformed most other property types over the last cycle. Its underlying characteristics mean demand and returns will continue to be healthy ahead, though the winning... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will remote work go into reverse? We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Dallas tops our updated rankings of 34 industrial markets The dynamism of the industrial sector means that market-level outperformance is often only achievable for short periods, because either relative value deteriorates or new supply quickly completes... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Immigration will support largest multifamily markets While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Diverse occupier base to support Southern office demand After an already-tough H1 for information sector jobs, we expect the second half of the year to see further cuts, which will be bad news for tech-heavy metros in the West. But a more diverse occupier... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
