Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail to split as US nears recession Almost three years on from the pandemic, only middle-income households are yet to recover financially. In the face of a looming downturn, we expect this will drive growth for discounters as middle... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growing signs affordability will constrain rental demand We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville tops updated ranking of remote worker metros Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places... 11th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update The key battlegrounds for cutting property emissions A large part of the real estate sector’s carbon footprint is related to electricity production and so will shrink over time as the use of renewables continues to expand. The biggest challenges to... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Blackstone and Starwood symptoms rather than causes On the face of it, the news of unlisted REITs reaching redemptions limits suggests cause for concern as it could point to forced sales over the coming months. However, both BREIT and SREIT have solid... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which sector would be hit hardest in a deeper recession? Our current view is that we see a mild recession in H1 2023, but if we were to see a more substantial drop in GDP, we think the extra downside impact would be felt most in the apartment sector. Indeed... 17th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
