US Commercial Property Update Which sector would be hit hardest in a deeper recession? Our current view is that we see a mild recession in H1 2023, but if we were to see a more substantial drop in GDP, we think the extra downside impact would be felt most in the apartment sector. Indeed... 17th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hotel RevPar growth to stall in 2023 Revenues in the hotel sector have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels after being the hardest hit by COVID-19. Although there are few signs yet of momentum slowing, we expect growth in the sector to... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling rent-frees do not point to an office recovery REIS data show rent-free periods dropped back in the first half of the year, hinting at a tightening market. But with occupiers still rationalising their office portfolios, we expect vacancy to tick... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Charlotte office rental growth to outpace US average We think the Charlotte office market will continue to outperform the US average, as firms capitalise on the city’s affordability and position as a prominent financial district. As such, even though... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which apartment markets look most overvalued? A forward-looking fair value analysis of the 17 apartment metros that we forecast suggests that Phoenix and the Western markets look most overvalued. This insight underpins the changes to our yield... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment completions set for multi-decade high The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
