On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway is that if Trump were to follow through on his mooted trade, immigration and fiscal policies, we would expect US inflation to be higher and GDP growth weaker. That would mean a higher level of Treasury yields and, therefore, commercial property cap rates than in our current forecast. There would be a similar, but smaller, impact on government bond and commercial property yields in our other markets.
This publication is being sent to all commercial property clients, given the wider impact of the subject and similar client questions we've received.
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