US Commercial Property Update Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast... 27th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Diverse occupier base to support Southern office demand After an already-tough H1 for information sector jobs, we expect the second half of the year to see further cuts, which will be bad news for tech-heavy metros in the West. But a more diverse occupier... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is... 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q2 data show appraisers still lagging reality A second consecutive reduction in the size of value falls – just 1.4% q/q – in the Q2 NCREIF NPI appears to point to the price correction being all but over. However, with evidence of distress growing... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distress rising, but still a long way to go With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flight to more affordable South set to continue Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial supply risks look most pointed in Phoenix The legacy of the post-pandemic industrial construction boom is now being felt in rising supply across most metros. With the demand outlook stabilising, we think the evolution of supply will shape... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How much office space will be needed by 2030? Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
