The incoming data over the past few weeks suggest that activity and employment rebounded in March, as the weather-related distortion that affected the winter months began to unwind. Our latest calculations indicate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to a modest 1.7% annualised, but that unwinding of the weather distortion means that we anticipate a much stronger 3.5% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP. After that we expect GDP growth to settle down at a still robust 3.0% annualised pace in the second half of the year, as the fiscal drag continues to fade and the Fed errs on the side of providing too much rather than too little monetary accommodation.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services