UK Economics Update Gov’t package cuts chances of financial crisis While the large package of measures aimed to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus unveiled by the government today probably won’t prevent a precipitous decline in GDP in Q2, it should help... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What more can the Bank of England do? The Bank of England can’t prevent the economy from falling into recession. But like the Fed, we think it will soon throw everything in its policy arsenal at the coronavirus crisis to try to prevent... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t needs to step in to confine big hit to GDP to Q2 We now think that the economic effects of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling by around 15% q/q in Q2, that the Bank of England will soon launch £150bn of quantitative easing, and that the... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Relative winners and losers from the coronavirus fallout While it is a given that GDP growth will slow sharply over the next few months as the economic consequences of the coronavirus are felt, some sectors will weather the storm better than others. We... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three bangs from the Bank with the Budget to come The Bank of England’s 50bps emergency interest rate cut, from 0.75% back to the record low of 0.25%, and other measures aimed to support loans to businesses announced this morning is the first salvo... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A worst-case hit to GDP from the coronavirus As central forecasts for GDP growth are less useful during times of high uncertainty, this Update illustrates some alternative scenarios of how the coronavirus could influence the UK economy based on... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative gilt yields won’t be common The fall in gilt yields into negative territory on Monday implies that investors think that the Bank of England will cut interest rates to emergency levels and keep them there for the foreseeable... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Budget 2020 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 11th March and to provide some instant... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE won’t wait long to respond to coronavirus The Bank of England has made it clear that policy action to cushion the economy from the coronavirus is on its way, the only questions are what, how much and when. In the face of today’s meltdown in... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Coronavirus concerns to prompt rate cut In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the economic effects of the coronavirus will result in GDP growth slowing to just 0.7% this year and will soon prompt the Bank of England to cut... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Virus-hit global demand to weigh on the UK The failure of the Chinese economy to recover promptly from the measures put in place to contain the coronavirus means that world demand growth will be softer than we had anticipated this year, but... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the government spend as much as it wants? While we are not convinced that capacity in the construction sector will be an immediate restraint on a big public investment splurge, the inner workings of the government could lessen the amount of... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Capacity for a substantial rise in public construction We think that the construction sector has the capacity to deliver an increase in public sector investment of around £50bn over the next five years if it is phased in gradually. Unless capacity... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government continues to tread tariff tightrope When faced with the choice of deciding whether to impose higher import tariffs on goods (exposing consumers to higher inflation) or lower ones (exposing firms to greater competition), the government’s... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Global risks shouldn’t derail the UK recovery While the weakening in the global economy has reignited a downside risk to the UK economy, at the moment we don’t think it will derail the recovery in domestic activity that appears to be in train. 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
