UK Economics Update Extra £150bn of QE unlikely to be the last expansion Back in June, we predicted that the Bank of England would expand quantitative easing (QE) by a further £350bn over the following 18 months (consensus £100bn). By announcing an extra £150bn of QE today... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole We estimate that the second England-wide lockdown will cause GDP to fall by around 8% m/m in November, prompt the unemployment rate to climb to a peak of 9% next year, contrib`ute to the government... 3rd November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Government support for employment fading The government is removing some of its support to employment. The national furlough ends on the 31 st October and the new Job Support Scheme is less generous and narrower. As a result, the pace of the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? While we wouldn’t rule out negative interest rates being used a bit further down the line, over the next 6-12 months we think 10-year gilt yields will be kept close to 0.15% by the Bank of England... 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Circuit breaker lockdown would reset the recovery A “circuit-breaker” lockdown where most pubs and restaurants are closed across the country would throw the economic recovery into reverse and mean that, depending on the severity and length of the... 15th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Consumers misery is largely justified Consumers appear to be much more miserable than the economic fundamentals would imply. But the prospect of a second wave of unemployment and the risk of future lockdowns are not captured well by the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Extra fiscal support to cushion the blow, but not eliminate it The policy measures announced today by the Chancellor will go some way to cushioning the blow to the economic recovery from the new restrictions to contain COVID-19 and limiting the long-term hit to... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New restrictions put the brakes on the recovery The new restrictions to contain COVID-19 won’t prevent some sectors from continuing to recover, but they will cause others to go backwards. And based on an assumption that restrictions are more likely... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New restrictions to quell the virus will set back the recovery A tightening in restrictions designed to quash the resurgence in new COVID-19 cases would set back the economic recovery. We’ll be in a better position to quantify the impact once the government... 21st September 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Strength of initial rebound won’t prevent more QE As the Bank of England already has a QE programme in place and financial markets have remained calm, it was no surprise that the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged in September. But we... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Curbing our optimism on UK equities We don’t think that the recent underperformance of UK equities will continue. But we no longer expect them to make up the ground that they have lost to their peers since the virus hit. 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Housing mini-boom will temporarily boost consumer spending The recent rebound in housing transactions and jump in house prices will boost consumption over the coming months, but the boost will only be temporary. Once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit is back The financial markets have woken up with a bang to the possibility that the Brexit transition period ends on 31st December without a deal. That could set back the UK’s economic recovery from the... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Outlook for recovery darkening The economy’s impressive initial recovery from the coronavirus recession will soon fade. That was always going to happen naturally once most sectors had reopened. But the prospect of some tax rises in... 7th September 2020 · 4 mins read
