UK Economics Update Not much for retailers to cheer this Christmas November’s “Black Friday” boost to retail sales volumes will actually show up in December’s retail sales figures this year. More importantly, consumers may not be in the mood to spend freely over the... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons for the UK from New Zealand’s Labour government The lessons for the UK from the election of a Labour government in New Zealand in 2017 are that businesses and financial markets will probably put more weight on policies that could restrain economic... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update A Conservative election win could boost UK equities If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority in the upcoming general election on 12th December, as polls suggest is the most likely outcome, there is potentially significant upside for UK... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC sitting on the fence, but could jump either way The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) dovish shift at its November meeting leaves the Committee unsure in which direction the next change in interest rates will be. As well as softening its language... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New fiscal rules clear the way for pre-election splurge With the Conservatives and the Labour Party now competing on fiscal profligacy rather than fiscal prudence, it is unsurprising that the Chancellor Sajid Javid announced today a full rewrite of the... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Two small forecast tweaks This Update clarifies the tweaks to our forecasts for the economy and the financial markets triggered by the delay to Brexit to 31st January and the recent changes to our forecasts for the global... 5th November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update UK versus South Africa: On and off the rugby pitch With England and South Africa battling for the right to lift the Webb Ellis Cup in the Rugby World Cup final this weekend, we’ve been pondering which of the two economies would come out on top in a... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election influence the economy? A general election on 12th December may seal the fate of Brexit but could also have some other important implications. The economy and financial markets may either have to cope with a combination of a... 29th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Who’s investing and who’s not? The weakness in business investment since the EU referendum has been concentrated in IT & machinery, transport and non-residential buildings so those areas may enjoy the biggest rebound if there is a... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on general election Although Parliament tonight voted against holding a general election, it seems likely that MPs will soon change their minds and in the next day or two will vote for an election that will decide the... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Johnson’s Brexit deal could allow uncertainty to linger The political benefits of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal may also prove to be its economic downsides. If the deal is eventually passed in its current form there would effectively still be a chance of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal Tonight’s votes in Parliament on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal suggest that Brexit will probably be delayed beyond 31 st October as they led the Prime Minister to “pause” the path to a deal. But it’s... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in Parliament this week and highlights at what point we would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or so... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Meaningful vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal The decision by Parliament to essentially postpone a meaningful vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal until after a delay to Brexit has been requested is a decent result for the economy and the pound as... 19th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK & EU agree a Brexit deal If the Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK earlier today passes through Parliament, then there is scope for economic growth, interest rates, gilt yields and the pound to all rise further than is... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How high could the pound go? If a Brexit deal is signed and ratified then sterling could rise further over the next few weeks or months, from $1.28 to $1.35 (€1.17). If interest rates were then to rise, sterling could hit $1.40 (... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
