UK Economics Update Brexit – What next? When the Brexit process comes to a head in October the economy could shift onto a new trajectory. This Update sets out the key events that could affect which of our forecasts the economy follows. 10th September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament vote on election Tonight was a good night in Parliament for the financial markets as MPs took another step towards delaying Brexit from 31 st October 2019 to 31 st January 2020 and their rejection of the Prime... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor turns on the spending taps While the bulk of the extra spending unveiled today in the 2019 Spending Round had already been announced, its overall stance was a bit looser than had been anticipated. This could raise GDP growth by... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Key points on the next general election If Parliament moves to rule out a no deal Brexit this week, a general election seems on the cards either before or after a delay to Brexit. With the Conservatives ahead in the polls, a no-deal Brexit... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on plan to delay Brexit Tonight’s decision by Parliament to take the first step to delay Brexit until 31 st January 2020 could reduce some of the downward pressure that resulted in the pound weakening to $1.19 and 10-year... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a Labour government mean for the economy? There is a wide range of plausible outcomes for the economy if the Labour Party were to win a general election. But our inkling is that the most likely result would be a moderately weaker economy than... 3rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch as Parliament returns with a bang The events in Parliament over the next week and a half will be crucial in determining whether Brexit will be delayed beyond 31st October, whether there’s an election or whether there is a big step up... 2nd September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Suspending Parliament raises the chances of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October increases the downside risks to the economy and the pound by decreasing the chances... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The retail surveys: leading or misleading? The weakness in the retail surveys has led some to question whether the consumer sector will succumb to the malaise that has taken hold in the manufacturing sector. But we are sceptical the consumer... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will manufacturing drag the economy into recession? While much of the sharp contraction in manufacturing in the second quarter can be put down to Brexit distortions, a meaningful recovery is unlikely given the ongoing struggles of global manufacturing... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to make of the inverted gilt yield curve The inversion of the yield curve has stoked concerns about the possibility of an imminent recession, if the UK is not already in one. However, even though the downside risks to the economy have... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Potential no deal flashpoints We probably won’t know for sure if the UK is heading for a no deal Brexit until the moment it actually happens, which would be at 11.00pm on 31st October 2019. But there are a number of keys dates in... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Eyeing up no more than one rate hike Much like the Fed, the Monetary Policy Committee today blamed a lot of its more downbeat assessment of the outlook on the global economy. But unlike the Fed, the MPC still thinks it will probably need... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the MPC follow the global trend and cut interest rates? There has been mounting speculation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will join the global loosening cycle by cutting interest rates. We think it will if there is a no deal Brexit. But if there... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
