UK Economics Update Are the Bank’s helicopter blades starting to turn? We won’t know until the future whether or not the Bank of England has launched helicopter money as it depends if the rise in the money supply is temporary or permanent. But more important is whether... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Business insolvencies to reach same level as the GFC The number of business insolvencies could reach the same level as in the Global Financial Crisis over the next few years, keeping the unemployment rate high and holding back the economic recovery. 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rising chance of an extension to the Brexit transition period Brexit is clearly not a priority right now. But with negotiations shelved due to the coronavirus, it is becoming increasingly likely that the government agrees to extend the transition period beyond... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Universal Credit claims point to unemployment leap Reports of a further leap in new claims for Universal Credit suggest that the government support designed to keep people employed isn’t working and that the unemployment rate could jump from 3.9% in... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Explosion in gov’t borrowing won’t push up gilt yields We doubt that the coming explosion in government borrowing or the accompanying rise in government debt will push up gilt yields. Low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates mean that they gilt... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update TV the biggest winner of lockdown Most of the high frequency indicators we track show how the coronavirus lockdown is significantly reducing activity. The exception is the activity of watching TV, which is surging. This too, of course... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation heading close to zero The collapse in economic activity, spike in unemployment and slump in oil prices look set to push inflation down from 1.7% now to around 0.5%, with the risk that inflation falls to, or below zero... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A completely new type of recession This coronavirus recession isn’t anything like a “normal” one. The fall in output will be sudden and vast. The huge policy response means the recovery should be much quicker than normal too. But the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank will do more if financial stresses worsen If the Bank of England is going to build on the unprecedented policy support it has unleashed in recent weeks to counteract the economic effects of the coronavirus, it won’t be because of concerns... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The fiscal cost of the coronavirus crisis The coronavirus crisis means that the government’s budget deficit will soon explode to above the 10% of GDP peak seen in the financial crisis and debt could spiral from about 80% of GDP now to over... 25th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise by less than in the GFC The enormous fall in GDP that we have pencilled in for Q2 as a result of the economic effects of the coronavirus implies that the unemployment rate will spike over the next few months and that incomes... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t pays about £110bn to stop unemployment rising 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update High frequency indicators start to show virus impact The high frequency indicators we track show that the spread of the coronavirus is already having an impact on the economy. There is no doubt these activity indicators will deteriorate further as the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE forced into more emergency action by market stress The big package of measures announced by the Bank of England today in its second emergency meeting in just over a week is designed to ease the stress in the financial markets and to support the... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
