UK Economics Update MPC still warning about a cut, but it may not deliver The MPC kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% today but left the door open to a rate cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, with the economy turning a corner and a big fiscal stimulus approaching, we... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Our thoughts on the chances of a January rate cut We have argued for some time that a near-term interest rate cut is a strong possibility. The market has now come around to this view. While the decision is a toss-up, at least until we see the next... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal The ease at which Johnson’s Brexit divorce bill passed through Parliament today illustrates the power the new government has over Brexit. But uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bailey faces some challenges as new BoE Governor The confirmation that Andrew Bailey will take over from Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England on 16th March 2020 doesn’t change the outlook for monetary policy. But Bailey will face many... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Our key forecasts for 2020 Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields. But looser fiscal policy should... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC remains in wait and see mode The tone of December’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement and minutes was barely changed from November, indicating that the MPC is content to sit on its hands for the time being. As a result... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Election eases Brexit handbrake but doesn’t release it While the majority secured by the Conservatives in the election clears the path to a Brexit deal being passed by 31 st January and fiscal policy being loosened in a Budget in February, the resulting... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update General Election Exit Poll This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the general election exit poll was published at 10pm on 12 th December 2019. If the exit poll’s estimation that the... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch on election night Our election preview contains detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election on the economy and markets. Here we focus on what to watch on Thursday night to get a sense of the result and... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election result affect the markets? As the markets have priced in a high chance of this Thursday’s election delivering a Conservative majority there is little immediate upside left for the pound or gilt yields, although equities might... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What are the precedents for a Labour win next week? A surprise win for Labour at Thursday’s election could be a major shock to UK equity markets. There are few recent examples of an unexpected sharp left-ward political turn in a developed economy. But... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Employment lags activity, but leads the MPC While employment tends to lag changes in economic activity, the labour market figures will be crucial in leading the MPC’s decision about whether to cut interest rates or not in the coming months... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty to linger after election and Brexit deal While a Conservative election win followed by a Brexit deal would boost the economy, the lingering uncertainty generated by Boris Johnson’s pledge not to extend the transition period beyond 2020 will... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK shareholders should worry about a Labour win The Labour Party’s manifesto contains several measures which, if implemented, would have a significant negative effect on UK equites. A surprise Labour win could send UK equities tumbling, despite a... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would investors shun gilts if Labour won the election? Labour would probably borrow a lot more than the Conservatives if it won the election, but we doubt gilt yields would soar. Labour’s fiscal plans wouldn’t bring debt sustainability into question... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
