UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal Tonight’s votes in Parliament on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal suggest that Brexit will probably be delayed beyond 31 st October as they led the Prime Minister to “pause” the path to a deal. But it’s... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update When will Johnson’s Brexit deal be done or dead? This Update analyses the key Brexit events in Parliament this week and highlights at what point we would be able to conclude that a Brexit deal is either done or dead. As such, the next week or so... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Meaningful vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal The decision by Parliament to essentially postpone a meaningful vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal until after a delay to Brexit has been requested is a decent result for the economy and the pound as... 19th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK & EU agree a Brexit deal If the Brexit deal agreed by the EU and UK earlier today passes through Parliament, then there is scope for economic growth, interest rates, gilt yields and the pound to all rise further than is... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How high could the pound go? If a Brexit deal is signed and ratified then sterling could rise further over the next few weeks or months, from $1.28 to $1.35 (€1.17). If interest rates were then to rise, sterling could hit $1.40 (... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to limit adverse effect from no deal tariffs The government’s latest no deal tariff plans released yesterday provide us with some reassurance that although there will be some hit to the economy from higher tariffs it won’t be as big as most... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Interest rate cuts become more likely than not In a change to our previous forecast, we now think there’s a fair chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates if Brexit is delayed. That means interest rate cuts now feature in two of our... 8th October 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update The gap between our no deal numbers and the BoE’s When put on a like-for-like basis, the Bank of England’s assumptions for how weak the economy would be in the 12 months after a no deal Brexit are not that different to our own. And both we and the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Unlawful suspension of Parliament trims no deal risk The ruling by the Supreme Court that the Prime Minister’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful, void and of no effect” and that the suspension should be “quashed” as soon as possible... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Are the UK’s financial ties with Hong Kong a concern? The UK has significant financial ties to Hong Kong, and the recession and correction in house prices we are forecasting there will put the territory’s financial sector under pressure. However, only a... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Government to win from RPI reforms, bondholders to lose The decision to reform the RPI measure of inflation at some point between 2025 and 2030 could reduce RPI inflation by a little under 1ppt a year. That could give the Government a windfall of about £3... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to follow its friends and loosen policy Given the drop in GDP in Q2, the fall in core inflation to an almost 3-year low in August and the ongoing Brexit drama, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75%... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Student loans the last nail in the coffin of the fiscal rule The implementation of a change to how student loans are classified in the public finances, on top of a jump in government spending so far this year and the 2019 Spending Round, means the Government’s... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update US-China trade war has only minor implications for the UK The impact of the trade war between the US and China on the UK economy has been small, even allowing for the indirect effects on investment and the financial markets. Admittedly, trade tensions will... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
