UK Economics Update Employment lags activity, but leads the MPC While employment tends to lag changes in economic activity, the labour market figures will be crucial in leading the MPC’s decision about whether to cut interest rates or not in the coming months... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty to linger after election and Brexit deal While a Conservative election win followed by a Brexit deal would boost the economy, the lingering uncertainty generated by Boris Johnson’s pledge not to extend the transition period beyond 2020 will... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would a Labour victory be a loss for the pound? A victory for Labour in the general election on 12th December would probably cause the pound to slide from $1.29/£ to around $1.20/£. But the prospect of a softer Brexit, or even no Brexit at all... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK shareholders should worry about a Labour win The Labour Party’s manifesto contains several measures which, if implemented, would have a significant negative effect on UK equites. A surprise Labour win could send UK equities tumbling, despite a... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Would investors shun gilts if Labour won the election? Labour would probably borrow a lot more than the Conservatives if it won the election, but we doubt gilt yields would soar. Labour’s fiscal plans wouldn’t bring debt sustainability into question... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Not much for retailers to cheer this Christmas November’s “Black Friday” boost to retail sales volumes will actually show up in December’s retail sales figures this year. More importantly, consumers may not be in the mood to spend freely over the... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons for the UK from New Zealand’s Labour government The lessons for the UK from the election of a Labour government in New Zealand in 2017 are that businesses and financial markets will probably put more weight on policies that could restrain economic... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update A Conservative election win could boost UK equities If the Conservative Party wins an outright majority in the upcoming general election on 12th December, as polls suggest is the most likely outcome, there is potentially significant upside for UK... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC sitting on the fence, but could jump either way The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) dovish shift at its November meeting leaves the Committee unsure in which direction the next change in interest rates will be. As well as softening its language... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New fiscal rules clear the way for pre-election splurge With the Conservatives and the Labour Party now competing on fiscal profligacy rather than fiscal prudence, it is unsurprising that the Chancellor Sajid Javid announced today a full rewrite of the... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Two small forecast tweaks This Update clarifies the tweaks to our forecasts for the economy and the financial markets triggered by the delay to Brexit to 31st January and the recent changes to our forecasts for the global... 5th November 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update UK versus South Africa: On and off the rugby pitch With England and South Africa battling for the right to lift the Webb Ellis Cup in the Rugby World Cup final this weekend, we’ve been pondering which of the two economies would come out on top in a... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election influence the economy? A general election on 12th December may seal the fate of Brexit but could also have some other important implications. The economy and financial markets may either have to cope with a combination of a... 29th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Who’s investing and who’s not? The weakness in business investment since the EU referendum has been concentrated in IT & machinery, transport and non-residential buildings so those areas may enjoy the biggest rebound if there is a... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on general election Although Parliament tonight voted against holding a general election, it seems likely that MPs will soon change their minds and in the next day or two will vote for an election that will decide the... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Johnson’s Brexit deal could allow uncertainty to linger The political benefits of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal may also prove to be its economic downsides. If the deal is eventually passed in its current form there would effectively still be a chance of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
