UK Economics Update Rishi Sunak replaces Sajid Javid as Chancellor This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the announcement that Sajid Javid was being replaced as Chancellor by Rishi Sunak at 12pm on 13th February 2020. The... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Don’t fret about weak consumer spending It’s possible that consumer spending stagnated or even fell outright in Q4. But this is not too worrying as stronger growth in incomes, a fall in uncertainty and a rise in confidence should lead to a... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of coronavirus on the UK Much depends on if and when the outbreak of coronavirus in China is brought under control. But as it stands at present, the effects on the UK economy have probably been negligible. 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit begins Even when the UK leaves the EU tonight, the shape of its future relationship with the EU is still very uncertain. We suspect it will eventually have a more distant “Canada, plus, plus” type... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC still warning about a cut, but it may not deliver The MPC kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% today but left the door open to a rate cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, with the economy turning a corner and a big fiscal stimulus approaching, we... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Our thoughts on the chances of a January rate cut We have argued for some time that a near-term interest rate cut is a strong possibility. The market has now come around to this view. While the decision is a toss-up, at least until we see the next... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on Johnson’s Brexit deal The ease at which Johnson’s Brexit divorce bill passed through Parliament today illustrates the power the new government has over Brexit. But uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU... 20th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bailey faces some challenges as new BoE Governor The confirmation that Andrew Bailey will take over from Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England on 16th March 2020 doesn’t change the outlook for monetary policy. But Bailey will face many... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Our key forecasts for 2020 Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields. But looser fiscal policy should... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC remains in wait and see mode The tone of December’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement and minutes was barely changed from November, indicating that the MPC is content to sit on its hands for the time being. As a result... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Election eases Brexit handbrake but doesn’t release it While the majority secured by the Conservatives in the election clears the path to a Brexit deal being passed by 31 st January and fiscal policy being loosened in a Budget in February, the resulting... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update General Election Exit Poll This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the general election exit poll was published at 10pm on 12 th December 2019. If the exit poll’s estimation that the... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch on election night Our election preview contains detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election on the economy and markets. Here we focus on what to watch on Thursday night to get a sense of the result and... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the election result affect the markets? As the markets have priced in a high chance of this Thursday’s election delivering a Conservative majority there is little immediate upside left for the pound or gilt yields, although equities might... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What are the precedents for a Labour win next week? A surprise win for Labour at Thursday’s election could be a major shock to UK equity markets. There are few recent examples of an unexpected sharp left-ward political turn in a developed economy. But... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
