UK Economics Update TV the biggest winner of lockdown Most of the high frequency indicators we track show how the coronavirus lockdown is significantly reducing activity. The exception is the activity of watching TV, which is surging. This too, of course... 31st March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation heading close to zero The collapse in economic activity, spike in unemployment and slump in oil prices look set to push inflation down from 1.7% now to around 0.5%, with the risk that inflation falls to, or below zero... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A completely new type of recession This coronavirus recession isn’t anything like a “normal” one. The fall in output will be sudden and vast. The huge policy response means the recovery should be much quicker than normal too. But the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank will do more if financial stresses worsen If the Bank of England is going to build on the unprecedented policy support it has unleashed in recent weeks to counteract the economic effects of the coronavirus, it won’t be because of concerns... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The fiscal cost of the coronavirus crisis The coronavirus crisis means that the government’s budget deficit will soon explode to above the 10% of GDP peak seen in the financial crisis and debt could spiral from about 80% of GDP now to over... 25th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise by less than in the GFC The enormous fall in GDP that we have pencilled in for Q2 as a result of the economic effects of the coronavirus implies that the unemployment rate will spike over the next few months and that incomes... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t pays about £110bn to stop unemployment rising 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update High frequency indicators start to show virus impact The high frequency indicators we track show that the spread of the coronavirus is already having an impact on the economy. There is no doubt these activity indicators will deteriorate further as the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE forced into more emergency action by market stress The big package of measures announced by the Bank of England today in its second emergency meeting in just over a week is designed to ease the stress in the financial markets and to support the... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t package cuts chances of financial crisis While the large package of measures aimed to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus unveiled by the government today probably won’t prevent a precipitous decline in GDP in Q2, it should help... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update What more can the Bank of England do? The Bank of England can’t prevent the economy from falling into recession. But like the Fed, we think it will soon throw everything in its policy arsenal at the coronavirus crisis to try to prevent... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t needs to step in to confine big hit to GDP to Q2 We now think that the economic effects of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling by around 15% q/q in Q2, that the Bank of England will soon launch £150bn of quantitative easing, and that the... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Relative winners and losers from the coronavirus fallout While it is a given that GDP growth will slow sharply over the next few months as the economic consequences of the coronavirus are felt, some sectors will weather the storm better than others. We... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three bangs from the Bank with the Budget to come The Bank of England’s 50bps emergency interest rate cut, from 0.75% back to the record low of 0.25%, and other measures aimed to support loans to businesses announced this morning is the first salvo... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
