UK Economics Update New restrictions to quell the virus will set back the recovery A tightening in restrictions designed to quash the resurgence in new COVID-19 cases would set back the economic recovery. We’ll be in a better position to quantify the impact once the government... 21st September 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Strength of initial rebound won’t prevent more QE As the Bank of England already has a QE programme in place and financial markets have remained calm, it was no surprise that the MPC voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged in September. But we... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Curbing our optimism on UK equities We don’t think that the recent underperformance of UK equities will continue. But we no longer expect them to make up the ground that they have lost to their peers since the virus hit. 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Housing mini-boom will temporarily boost consumer spending The recent rebound in housing transactions and jump in house prices will boost consumption over the coming months, but the boost will only be temporary. Once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit is back The financial markets have woken up with a bang to the possibility that the Brexit transition period ends on 31st December without a deal. That could set back the UK’s economic recovery from the... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Outlook for recovery darkening The economy’s impressive initial recovery from the coronavirus recession will soon fade. That was always going to happen naturally once most sectors had reopened. But the prospect of some tax rises in... 7th September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the Bank of England change its remit? While the Bank of England might not follow the Fed and change its inflation remit, we doubt this will stop it from significantly loosening policy and from keeping it loose for a very long time. 3rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Back to school boost for the economy The reopening of schools this week could give a boost to GDP of around 5% as output in the education sector returns to normal and parents who have had to provide childcare get back to work. 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Surge in retail sales overstating the wider rebound The recovery in total consumer spending is almost certainly lagging well behind the surge in retail sales. And although the early signs of a recovery have been positive, a coming wave of unemployment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Surprising sterling resilience to Brexit unlikely to last Despite the news that the latest round of UK-EU Brexit negotiations ended in deadlock last Friday, sterling has remained remarkably stable. This suggests that while there may be some small upside for... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How reliable are the high frequency indicators? With the so-called “easy” part of the economic recovery probably coming to an end, the next leg is likely to be slower, particularly if like overseas, the UK suffers a renewed surge in virus cases and... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Recent lull in business insolvencies the calm before the storm The recent lull in business insolvencies will almost certainly be followed by a wave of businesses going bust as government support is withdrawn. This will contribute to a surge in unemployment over... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to make of diverging unemployment rates in the UK and US While the success of the UK’s job furlough scheme has prevented the unemployment rate from rising as far as it has in the US, an increase in UK unemployment has been delayed rather than avoided... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Quarantine is not the source of the tourism industry’s woes The sudden imposition of quarantine on people arriving from France highlights the risks involved in foreign travel while the virus is still circulating. This uncertainty is likely to mean it takes a... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Big discounts boost eating out, but consumers still cautious The success of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme suggests that fears about the virus are not preventing activity. But as meals out only seem to be popular due to a heavy discount, consumers are... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Number of people on furlough already down by half By July, we think that around 4 million people had already left the government’s job furlough scheme and 5 million remained on the scheme. That fall is faster than we had expected but does not change... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
