UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics MPC not ready to use negative rates…and may not need to Our forecasts that the Bank of England would not be able to use negative interest until the middle of the year and wouldn’t be willing to speed up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) proved to be... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Plunging population would threaten extent of GDP recovery The possible sharp fall in the population since the start of the pandemic may explain up to 1.8 percentage points of the underperformance of the UK economy last year relative to its peers and, more... 21st January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 The Bank of England may not be ready to use negative interest rates until H2 2021. And by then, COVID-19 restrictions might be easing and the economy could be growing rapidly. In any case, if the Bank... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three lockdowns, two recessions, one big recovery The third lockdown to contain COVID-19 means that the economy will start the year in recession and the recovery will be delayed again. Even so, by expecting the economy to regain its pre-crisis level... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
