UK Commercial Property Update Rental values set to rise next year, but recovery will be slow Upward revisions in the latest survey pushed the IPF Consensus into line with our own view that IPD all-property rental values will stabilise later this year and rise modestly in 2011. Yet, depending... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update “Delay and pray” continues; low interest rates crucial for outlook The latest De Montfort University (DMU) Lending Review makes uncomfortable reading for the commercial property market, showing that a full 20% of outstanding loans by value are now distressed. For now... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is commercial property development activity about to surge? Although the recent upturn in the commercial construction PMI is encouraging, it does not necessarily signal a sustained and significant upturn in the commercial property supply pipeline. But even if... 14th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher pound unlikely to prompt overseas investor exodus We think that a stronger exchange rate over the next year or so is a very real prospect. If that is right, fears may arise of an exodus of overseas investors from the UK commercial property market. We... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Conflicting signals for investment demand Recent property lending and pooled funds flows data may signal that the upswing in capital values will run further than is commonly assumed. However, with credit supply unlikely to ease materially... 4th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Demand data-flow positive for industrial rents; supply less so Industrial rental values remain on track to fall in 2010 as a whole, but last week’s CBI Industrial Trends survey pointed to a better outlook in 2011 than we have pencilled in. For now, reflecting the... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Capital gain of 10% this year still on the cards Commercial property’s strong start to 2010 has already left the latest IPF Consensus forecast looking a little conservative. We remain comfortable with our forecast for a 10% rise in IPD capital... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Soft spending prospects to restrain leisure property Tuesday’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that high street spending continues to hold up well. Off the high street, however, things are not so rosy, especially for spending on leisure services... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Irish bank rescue plan derail commercial property recovery? With Irish investors having been such big players during the most recent commercial property boom across Europe, there are now concerns (highlighted, for example, in a recent Property Week) that the... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further support for a more optimistic office rental outlook The tone of today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey was generally subdued, although an improvement in expectations about future business volumes points to a continued slowdown in the rate of decline... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail outperformance is narrowly based The retail sector again recorded the largest rise in capital values in February. However, the recent outperformance of the retail sector has been driven almost exclusively by retail warehouses. To us... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Does the fall in speculative industrial development matter? At the margin, the continued fall in the speculative industrial development pipeline can only be a support for medium-term rental value growth prospects in this sector. However, we still suspect that... 12th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the boom turn to bust ... again? The lessons from 1993/94 The current surge in commercial property capital values broadly mirrors the rebound seen in 1993/94 as the economy emerged from the last recession. That episode, however, gave way to renewed capital... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Does the property derivatives market know something we don’t? Current commercial property derivatives prices suggest that IPD total returns this year will be markedly lower than either our expectations or the IPF Consensus forecasts. The derivatives market may... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Recovery may now be broadening, but not to all non-prime property There can be no question that the recovery in the prime segment of the commercial property market continues apace. The evidence on the performance of near-prime and lower-quality property, however, is... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Surveyors may be too pessimistic about retail occupier prospects Surveyors’ responses to last week’s RICS Commercial Property survey painted a downbeat picture of the prospects for the retail occupier market, which seems consistent with the weaker tone of today’s... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read