UK Commercial Property Update Will regional office markets follow London’s lead in 2011? Notwithstanding some less encouraging recent news (e.g. yesterday’s reports of looming job cuts at Barclays Capital), London’s City and West End office occupier markets are in recovery mode. Past... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Fading sentiment signals an end to capital value gains It is pretty clear that property investors’ sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. Accordingly there seems to be little scope for further gains in capital values. But with bond yields likely to stay... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Short-term prospects for industrial rents still subdued Forward-looking indicators of industrial production have cooled a little, though there are some better signs for employment in this sector. The latter suggests that the floor for industrial rental... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Scope for fresh employment falls highlights muted rental prospects The more positive tone of yesterday’s labour market data was encouraging for commercial property rental values, which we still expect to find a floor later this year. However, with public sector job... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income security holds up, but weak economy is a lingering threat With the economy in recession for much of 2009, the latest data from Strutt & Parker and IPD suggest that landlords fared reasonably well last year, retaining a high proportion of tenants and in many... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Property debt still a significant risk to UK financial system The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How important are currency shifts to investment demand? The time series data on cross-border commercial property investment flows have a short history. But, not surprisingly in our view, they suggest that exchange rates are a far less important influence... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CMBS may be less of a problem than is feared The downside risks to property prices from failed refinancing of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) could linger for much of this decade. Over the next one to two years, however, relatively... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail may lag behind as investors shift to non-prime property Past experience suggests that the current trend for investors to target the income generating qualities of the best secondary stock is a comparatively low-risk strategy. Yet, even leaving aside any... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental values set to rise next year, but recovery will be slow Upward revisions in the latest survey pushed the IPF Consensus into line with our own view that IPD all-property rental values will stabilise later this year and rise modestly in 2011. Yet, depending... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update “Delay and pray” continues; low interest rates crucial for outlook The latest De Montfort University (DMU) Lending Review makes uncomfortable reading for the commercial property market, showing that a full 20% of outstanding loans by value are now distressed. For now... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is commercial property development activity about to surge? Although the recent upturn in the commercial construction PMI is encouraging, it does not necessarily signal a sustained and significant upturn in the commercial property supply pipeline. But even if... 14th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher pound unlikely to prompt overseas investor exodus We think that a stronger exchange rate over the next year or so is a very real prospect. If that is right, fears may arise of an exodus of overseas investors from the UK commercial property market. We... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Conflicting signals for investment demand Recent property lending and pooled funds flows data may signal that the upswing in capital values will run further than is commonly assumed. However, with credit supply unlikely to ease materially... 4th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Demand data-flow positive for industrial rents; supply less so Industrial rental values remain on track to fall in 2010 as a whole, but last week’s CBI Industrial Trends survey pointed to a better outlook in 2011 than we have pencilled in. For now, reflecting the... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Capital gain of 10% this year still on the cards Commercial property’s strong start to 2010 has already left the latest IPF Consensus forecast looking a little conservative. We remain comfortable with our forecast for a 10% rise in IPD capital... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
