UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rents could fall most in Midlands and Northern England We expect all-industrial rental values to decline by 9% this year and by a further 13% in 2010. However, the experience of the early 1990s suggests that the worst performing regions could see annual... 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update West End rents suffer most in 2008; the outlook is even bleaker We have long expected commercial property rental values to fall and, in our view, the decline of almost 1.5%y/y in 2008 is just the tip of the iceberg. With GDP set to shrink by 3% this year and by 1%... 3rd February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update December not the turning point for investment market activity Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Another step towards zero Today’s cut in interest rates to record low levels confirms that, for now at least, monetary policy remains focused on reducing the cost of money. We still expect rates to get down to zero, or very... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review, mid-year 2008 The latest De Montfort University report on bank lending to commercial property, if anything, only adds to the gloom hanging over the sector. What’s more, since it relates only to the first half of... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update UK interest rates heading for zero The recent dreadful news on the UK economy and the fall in US interest rates very close to zero have convinced us that UK interest rates are set to fall even further than we had previously thought... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker pound will not prompt a surge in overseas investment The depreciation of the pound has been one of the few positives for the UK commercial property market over the past year. After all, for overseas investors, the pound’s fall has made UK property far... 11th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little relief for property markets in the Pre-Budget Report The Pre-Budget Report (PBR) contained some good news for the commercial and residential property sectors but perhaps less than some might have been hoping for. The bottom line is that, to the extent... 24th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, October 2008 Unsurprisingly, there was little in the way of positive news in today’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) for the residential and commercial property markets. From a property perspective, the Bank... 28th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Secondary property still set to do worse than prime To date, secondary capital values have fallen by less than prime. As the economy deteriorates, however, we continue to believe that the fundamental desirability of prime buildings will mean that they... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have commercial property lending data remained so strong? According to the Bank of England (BoE), the net increase in the stock of loans on banks’ balance sheets secured against commercial property was £9bn in Q1. That was the second highest quarterly total... 13th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review - full year 2007 The headline results from the De Montfort University Review of the UK Commercial Property Lending Market for 2007 have already been widely disseminated, and confirmed anecdotal reports of a sharp... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, May 2008 Despite some of this morning’s headlines, the main thrust of today’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) was that downside risks to the financial system, property markets and to the broader economy... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights vulnerability of retail rental values to falls In a Commercial Property Data Response on Monday, we reported on the aggregate balances from the RICS Commercial Market Survey for 2008Q1, which were worryingly downbeat. Now, having had more time to... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have real office rental values fallen over time? Although there have clearly been major cycles, real all-office rental values are currently 48% lower than their level in 1975. (See Chart 1.) But against the general backdrop of an increasingly... 22nd February 2008 · 1 min read