UK Commercial Property Update Why have leisure and hotels held up relatively well during downturns? As they did in the early 1990s, the leisure and hotel sectors experienced smaller-than-average capital value falls during the most recent downturn. The weight of evidence is that these two niche... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do property/bond yield spreads imply for rental value growth? With 10-year bond yields averaging 3.65% over the past month and all-property initial yields at 7.7%, investors seem to be pricing property on the assumption that rental values in 10 years’ time will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have retail warehouse capital values risen first and fastest? IPD all-property capital values rose by 0.2% in August, ending a 25-month unbroken run of falls. Retail warehouse capital values, however, troughed in June and have since risen by 1.4% from their... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lenders begin to return, but outlook for lending activity still subdued Yesterday’s papers gave considerable coverage to recent Savills research reporting a sharp rise in the number of lenders willing to lend against UK commercial property. Clearly, this adds to the case... 7th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Financial services sector improves, but office rental values to fall further Although today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey showed a further recovery in financial sector confidence, we doubt that this signals an imminent end to the downturn in office rental values. Indeed... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Development activity may be at a floor, but outlook still weak Construction orders for new commercial property have fallen sharply during the recession. However, with the economy showing some signs of improvement, they may now have reached a floor. At the same... 14th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank lending to property: what’s in the numbers? The Bank of England (BoE) recently switched from publishing quarterly commercial property lending data to releasing them monthly. Given that these data generate an above-average number of client... 9th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underplaying signs of an occupier market recovery? As well as evidence of improving investor sentiment, there have also recently been signs that occupier demand may be firming. Even so, there are good reasons to believe that the peak-to-trough decline... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment market activity poised to rise; capital values could stabilise Commercial property transactions now seem to have found a floor, but we doubt that they will suddenly rebound strongly. Even so, it seems more likely than not that market activity levels will improve... 17th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Derivative prices and funds flows: more signs of an improved outlook Commercial property derivatives pricing continues to improve. Moreover, the net outflows from pooled property investment funds, which have characterised the past couple of years, appear to have gone... 7th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre rental values still set to outperform shops and warehouses Shopping centre rental values are currently underperforming the other main retail sub-sectors, but there remain good reasons why this is unlikely to continue. For example, history suggests that... 22nd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lease Events Review doesn’t alter big picture that income is less secure The latest Strutt & Parker (S&P)/IPD Lease Events Review made for mixed reading from a commercial property investor’s point of view. Regardless, the shorter term influences that it looks at are small... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Fewer consumer-related jobs points to further retail rental value falls Retail sales have outperformed non-retail sales during the recession to date. Were that outperformance to continue it could be argued that the prospects for retail rental values are brighter than... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions survey and PMI data don’t alter weak property outlook Today’s Credit Conditions survey from the Bank of England showed that the supply of mortgage finance appears to be slowly improving, but does not change our view that further price falls are very... 2nd July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CBI/PwC financial services survey provides little comfort for offices Monday’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey received a reasonable amount of media coverage due to the more upbeat tone of its results. At first glance, that might appear to suggest an imminent upturn... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, June 2009 Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
