UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rental value prospects: too soon to upgrade the outlook The latest survey-based evidence from the Bank of England and the CBI shows that manufacturers and other firms in the industrial sector are increasingly optimistic about their prospects. At the margin... 22nd January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London's City office rental prospects: first signs of recovery? The recent, high-profile Blackrock leasing deal has caused some to conclude that market rents for London City offices have started their recovery. For prime property that is almost certain to be the... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Yield differential between Turkey and Russia to be maintained We expect the differential which has opened up between initial yields in Turkey and Russia to be maintained for the next two years at least. A less severe downturn in the occupier market seems to have... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Prospects for financial services sector, and office rents, still subdued Today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey was generally weak in tone, and tended to support our forecast that rental values across the office sector as a whole will fall for much of 2010. Of course... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending: some encouraging results, but not many Although the media coverage of last week’s De Montfort University study of commercial property lending over the first half of 2009 was relatively negative in tone, there were some more positive... 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further question marks over sustainability of current property rebound Yesterday’s BPF/IPD Annual Lease Review for 2009 showed that leases continue to get shorter and break clauses more common, implying a higher risk of voids for landlords. Although commercial property’s... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the shift to part-time working limited the fall in property demand? Part-time working has become more common during this recession, and may have helped commercial property demand to hold up better than it would have done in a scenario where firms were simply laying... 13th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have leisure and hotels held up relatively well during downturns? As they did in the early 1990s, the leisure and hotel sectors experienced smaller-than-average capital value falls during the most recent downturn. The weight of evidence is that these two niche... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What do property/bond yield spreads imply for rental value growth? With 10-year bond yields averaging 3.65% over the past month and all-property initial yields at 7.7%, investors seem to be pricing property on the assumption that rental values in 10 years’ time will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have retail warehouse capital values risen first and fastest? IPD all-property capital values rose by 0.2% in August, ending a 25-month unbroken run of falls. Retail warehouse capital values, however, troughed in June and have since risen by 1.4% from their... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lenders begin to return, but outlook for lending activity still subdued Yesterday’s papers gave considerable coverage to recent Savills research reporting a sharp rise in the number of lenders willing to lend against UK commercial property. Clearly, this adds to the case... 7th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Financial services sector improves, but office rental values to fall further Although today’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey showed a further recovery in financial sector confidence, we doubt that this signals an imminent end to the downturn in office rental values. Indeed... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Development activity may be at a floor, but outlook still weak Construction orders for new commercial property have fallen sharply during the recession. However, with the economy showing some signs of improvement, they may now have reached a floor. At the same... 14th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank lending to property: what’s in the numbers? The Bank of England (BoE) recently switched from publishing quarterly commercial property lending data to releasing them monthly. Given that these data generate an above-average number of client... 9th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we underplaying signs of an occupier market recovery? As well as evidence of improving investor sentiment, there have also recently been signs that occupier demand may be firming. Even so, there are good reasons to believe that the peak-to-trough decline... 28th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment market activity poised to rise; capital values could stabilise Commercial property transactions now seem to have found a floor, but we doubt that they will suddenly rebound strongly. Even so, it seems more likely than not that market activity levels will improve... 17th August 2009 · 1 min read