UK Commercial Property Update Further bad news for retail occupier demand and rents Tesco’s plan to scale back its new-store expansion won’t have any direct impact on existing occupier demand for retail property. But the decision is symptomatic of wider weakness in consumer spending... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Survey points to sharp slowdown in Central London office rents The results of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey suggest that, over the next six to nine months, Central London office rental value growth will slow pretty sharply from its current rate of... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Derivatives pricing highlights downside risks to capital values Given the sharp growth in trading activity in the property futures market, conceptually its pricing data perhaps give a better guide than swaps to the near-term prospects for physical property capital... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Should we be concerned about institutions’ property sell-off? At face value, net disposals of property by investing institutions in each of the past three months could be a sign that capital values will start to fall again very soon. Equally, however, it could... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will shopping centre rental values continue to underperform? The recent underperformance by shopping centre rental values is unlikely to persist throughout 2012. But this does not mean that we envisage a recovery. Instead, we think that where shopping centres... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the fall in export orders mean for industrial rents? The order books of UK manufacturing firms have taken a knock over the past few months and the steadily weakening prospects for the euro-zone suggest that there is worse to come. All else equal, this... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the worst passed for public sector cuts to London office demand? To us, it seems likely that the worst of the effects of fiscal tightening on public sector demand for Central London offices has not yet passed. To be fair, the public sector probably accounts for... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPD yields likely to drift higher in 2012 We do not think that the increase in average property yields of around 80bps that has been recorded on the transactions-based Property Archive data over the past nine months will be mirrored fully by... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outperformance by retail property income unlikely to last Despite the fragile economic backdrop and in contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail property landlords have recently enjoyed positive income growth. In our view, however, with consumer... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income streams unlikely to be immune to weak economic backdrop Over the next 12 to 18 months, we now expect IPD all-property rental values to decline. And there was little in the latest Lease Events Review from Strutt & Parker (S&P) and IPD to suggest that the... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic prospects even weaker; property prices set to fall in 2012 The economic outlook continues to deteriorate pretty rapidly and, reflecting downgrades to our macro forecasts, we have now cut our expectations for UK commercial property returns. Rather than... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little reason to expect new QE to have major impact on property Commercial property is no longer obviously undervalued and, rather than a shortage of cash, it is a lack of suitable buildings available to buy that is currently the biggest problem for many investors... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker financial services sector points to soft office rent outlook Compared with recent quarters, the tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey was pretty weak. Of course, given the turmoil of the past few months, that is no major surprise. Even so, today... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bond yields of 2% over the medium term will support property Last week, we revised down our forecasts for 10-year government bond yields, the benchmark riskfree rate for commercial property, from 2.5% at end-2011 – and right through to end-2013 – to just 2%... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Real retail rental value correction on track to be largest ever In recent months, retail property rental value trends – which were already pretty weak – have taken a turn for the worse. What’s more, the recent data-flow, such as weak retail sales and problematic... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read