UK Commercial Property Update Financial and business services sector jobs (Q4) Financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs edged up in Q4, though year-on-year growth is yet to recover to levels consistent with strong and sustained gains in City office rental values. We... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weight of equity an upside risk to commercial property prices Our central view is that IPD all-property capital values will decline by a modest 2% this year. But with the public sector spending cuts yet to start in earnest, there are plenty of downside risks to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the case for London hotels as clear-cut as it seems? The outlook for hotel property total returns over 2011/12 is widely considered to be better in London than in the regions. It is hard to argue with that assessment. However, there are reasons to be... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How much weight should we put on real estate equity price rally? There is not an automatic link between real estate equity prices and price changes in the physical property market. However, while the prospect of a faltering economic recovery this year still... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the rise in transaction-based yields tell us? One interpretation of recent Propertydata.com figures, which show rising average transaction-based commercial property yields, is that consensus forecasts for capital values to fall by 2% or so this... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are current rental value expectations too downbeat? There are grounds to think that the consensus forecasts that IPD all-property rental values will rise by about 1% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012 are too cautious. First, the recovery in rental values in the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan) In January, the CIPS/Markit construction PMI rose back above the expansion/contraction mark of 50. Of course, after December’s snow, a rebound was perhaps always likely. While activity remains... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail property really Europe's best bet? Survey evidence suggests that German commercial property, retail in particular, is now at the top of cross-border investors’ target lists, while the UK has slid down the rankings. This shift in... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rental values still likely to edge lower this year Various near-term indicators currently point to a strong recovery in industrial property rental values in 2011. This may well be the experience for some landlords. On average, however, with the... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How promising is the recent fall in retail vacancy rates? Retail vacancy rates edged down in H2 2010, but with consumer spending likely to decline this year and more empty retail properties proving harder to re-let than ever before, we do not think that this... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher investor interest may support shopping centre returns in 2011 The scope for active asset management to boost shopping centre returns will explain most of the recent rise in investor interest in the segment. Although its importance can be overstated in a year... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Further reasons to be cautious about pace of office rental recovery The latest data from the CBI and PwC suggest that financial services sector output rose in the final three months of 2010 but that employment fell sharply. What’s more, the fact that headcounts are... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lenders' leniency hinges on low inflation and interest rates Recent Bank of England and De Montfort University reports suggest that deleveraging in the UK commercial property sector is likely to continue in a slow but reasonably orderly fashion. However, one... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail suffering from rising vacancy amongst non-prime buildings IPD vacancy rate data support the widely-held view that non-prime property has suffered more than prime from a rise in empty floorspace over the past two years. The figures also suggest that the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Effect on average prices of falls in secondary segment may be muted Transactions activity has cooled recently, with anecdotal evidence suggesting a buyer/seller stand-off in the secondary segment has been a contributing factor. On IPD data, this segment is fairly... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS data highlight lingering office occupier market uncertainty Recent RICS data suggest that office rental values across the UK may fall slightly in Q4. We suspect that this will prove too pessimistic. Even so, the data are a timely reminder of the fragility of... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read