UK Commercial Property Update Are we too gloomy about industrial? The strength of industrial take-up in Q2 was driven by a ramp-up in delivery capacity, particularly by supermarkets and Amazon. Along with the continued upward trend in the MSCI monthly data, this... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Better economic data not yet a cause for celebration The most recent UK economic indicators have been better than expected. This suggests potential upside to our commercial property rental forecasts. But there are significant uncertainties ahead and... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT prices highlight wide sectoral divergence While all-property capital values lag real estate equity prices, the movement in REIT prices can also tell us something about sector performance. The staggered recovery in REITs from March’s low point... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre slump set to continue UK retailers continue to suffer, even given the recent re-opening of shops and signs of improving sales. Shopping centres have fared worst and this has been highlighted by the woes of owner Intu. And... 26th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is it last orders for pub investors? While there has been a decline in the number of pubs, revenues had been rising in recent years. This has led to some big deals in the sector and falling prime yields. Nevertheless, when pubs re-open... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Headwinds for student accommodation While demand for student accommodation has risen during past downturns, we expect it will be very different this time. Uncertainty around face-to-face lectures and travel restrictions could lead to... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are forecasters now too pessimistic about retail rents? The latest IPF Consensus Forecasts revealed sharper than expected downgrades for the next few years, largely based on revisions to retail rents. Our views are now above this consensus, though we don’t... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rise in Central London vacancy to hurt office rents A reasonable proportion of the Central London office completions for this year are likely to be pushed into 2021, but a fall in employment will hit demand for office space and lead to a pick-up in... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How will eased lockdown affect property development? Easing movement restrictions, combined with government support and strong underlying demand will allow housebuilding to bounce back fairly quickly. But weak occupier demand and falling capital values... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Impact of WFH on European office demand Data from Europe suggest that the relationship between working from home and office space per worker is weak. And even if working from home becomes more prevalent in the next few years, we think that... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US investors would do well to stay at home In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can landlords survive the lockdown? While there are fewer concerns that this property downturn could bring problems for lenders than during the GFC, financial risks remain, especially on the landlord side. 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Investment activity to fall by a third this year Due to the spread of COVID-19, it is increasingly likely that investment activity will slump to a record low level in the second quarter. Even though we expect a pickup in the second half of the year... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early data hint at the scale of the downturn The latest monthly figures from MSCI confirm initial fears about the impact of COVID-19 on property. And this is only the start, figures for the coming months are likely to be worse still as the... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online boost will not prevent wider industrial woes Social distancing measures have accelerated the shift to online spending in recent weeks. But the upside of increased online spending is limited to a few occupiers, most notably supermarkets, and is... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read