UK Commercial Property Update Shop rents to bottom out in 2022 after a 15% fall The confirmation of an effective vaccine in recent weeks has improved the economic outlook. But rising unemployment, a higher exposure to smaller retailers and ongoing travel restrictions will result... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions likely to remain weak in 2021 Commercial property transactions are likely to end the year around 40% down on 2019 totals. And with the prospect of an extended lockdown this winter, a slower economic recovery and falling capital... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the UK office recovery be delayed? Recent developments point to a weaker short-term economic outlook in the UK. In our view, this will weigh most heavily on next year’s office sector recovery and suggests that the turnaround that we... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Home working to cut office demand by up to 10% An abrupt U-turn on workers returning to their offices last month signalled that the virus will continue to dominate lives in the UK into next year. In fact, we think office working may never quite be... 19th October 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak lending to put pressure on investors In the current environment, bank lending to property will likely stay weak. Moreover, falling values are expected to lead to an estimated £30bn re-financing gap in the coming years, which will put... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London industrial demand suffers but rents to hold up Along with difficulty in conducting viewings, London’s hard-hit hospitality and leisure sectors meant that there was a sharp fall in multi-let industrial take-up in H1. While availability is likely to... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Restrictions and WFH U-turn pose downside risk The resurgence in virus cases in the UK has led the government to reverse its advice on returning to the office. Given that many workers continued to work from home anyway, the impact of this change... 2nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Eviction ban increases downside in 2021 News that the government has extended the ban on commercial property evictions will be welcomed by tenants, especially in the hard-hit retail and hospitality sectors. But, already facing high levels... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is UK property fair value? Our analysis suggests that UK commercial property is fairly valued when compared to the pricing of alternative assets. However, with that finding based on the assumption that current income streams... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No respite for larger shopping centres Shopping centres are likely to suffer in the near term as people avoid enclosed spaces, shop more online and as retailers continue to go bust or consolidate space. Since mid-2018, rents have... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Limited downside risk to prices from Brexit The impact of the pandemic on property has superseded that of Brexit, but that's not to say that Brexit risks can or should be fully discounted. While we expect a slim deal to be agreed this year, we... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Reservations about the hotel recovery Travel restrictions and caution shown by holidaymakers have hit the hotel sector hard. While there has been a boost from the temporary cut in VAT for hospitality and tourism, weak global growth and... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read