UK Commercial Property Update COVID-19 legacy will be a weak property recovery The spread of performance between UK commercial property sectors hit an all-time high in 2020, with retail spiralling into a GFC-like slump, while industrial barely flinched. This gap will narrow, but... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have capital value falls bottomed out? The final few months of MSCI monthly data for 2020 suggest that the fall in capital values last year was not as bad as we anticipated. But we still think a prolonged period of tight restrictions and... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors in Europe moving down the risk curve Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to turn positive in 2021 After hitting a decade-low in 2020, we think that commercial property returns will turn positive in 2021, but any improvement is likely to be modest. This reflects the delayed recovery in the economy... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Activity will be slow to recover even with a Brexit deal Despite all the current gloom about COVID-19, the outlook for next year has been brightened by the vaccination programme. While we don’t think this will be enough to prevent further falls in capital... 23rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London office completions to peak in 2021 Office completions are set to rise again in Central London next year. We think this will mark the peak for this development cycle in London though, as an increase in remote working will dim the... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update No end in sight for outflows from open-ended funds With open-ended funds gated for much of the year, net outflows have not been as high as in recent years. But net outflows have picked up pace in recent months and we think this will continue as a... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shop rents to bottom out in 2022 after a 15% fall The confirmation of an effective vaccine in recent weeks has improved the economic outlook. But rising unemployment, a higher exposure to smaller retailers and ongoing travel restrictions will result... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions likely to remain weak in 2021 Commercial property transactions are likely to end the year around 40% down on 2019 totals. And with the prospect of an extended lockdown this winter, a slower economic recovery and falling capital... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the UK office recovery be delayed? Recent developments point to a weaker short-term economic outlook in the UK. In our view, this will weigh most heavily on next year’s office sector recovery and suggests that the turnaround that we... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Home working to cut office demand by up to 10% An abrupt U-turn on workers returning to their offices last month signalled that the virus will continue to dominate lives in the UK into next year. In fact, we think office working may never quite be... 19th October 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Weak lending to put pressure on investors In the current environment, bank lending to property will likely stay weak. Moreover, falling values are expected to lead to an estimated £30bn re-financing gap in the coming years, which will put... 16th October 2020 · 3 mins read
