Latin America Economics Weekly Andean pension withdrawals, Pemex financing Amidst the recent political turmoil in Peru, a second pension withdrawal bill was passed through Congress and a similar plan is in the pipeline in Chile. While they would boost private consumption in... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccines, impeachment & elections News of a potential vaccine breakthrough provides an upside risk to our GDP growth forecasts, but the crisis will still leave a legacy of higher debt and unemployment in Latin America. The impeachment... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Post-US election fallout, BCB rate hikes still a way off The most likely outcome from the US election – a Biden win alongside a divided Senate – is arguably the best possible result for Latin America. Mexico will probably face a less antagonistic trading... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil inflation fears, Pemex profits, Chile’s vote Concerns about rising inflation in Brazil are growing, we don’t think these fears are a bit overblown; underlying prices pressures remain soft. This is likely to remain the case, suggesting the... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s referendum, BCB’s autonomy Chile’s electorate is likely to vote in favour of having a new constitution on Sunday, which may start a long process towards entrenching greater state intervention in the economy. That would help to... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly ARS adjustment inevitable, Bolivia’s election Pressure is mounting on Argentina’s central bank as it attempts to manage the peso with rapidly diminishing FX reserves. While policymakers have poured cold water on growing speculation of a currency... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly IMF visits, fiscal space & protests It looks like the Mexican government will ignore the IMF’s advice this week that it should ramp up spending, adding to reasons to expect a weak recovery there. Brazil’s government, in contrast... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA changes tack, Brazil’s Renda Cidadã mess The announcement by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) of a new monetary policy strategy, in which it will allow a ‘managed float’ of the peso, reduces the risk of the real exchange rate becoming... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies under fire, Mexico’s tepid recovery While Latin American currencies have come under pressure this week, we think that they will rebound over the coming quarters as global risk appetite and commodity prices generally improve. Otherwise... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s Federative Pact, assessing the MXN rally Brazil’s congress will reportedly receive a plan for the Federative Pact reform next week, which would ease concerns about the public finances. But we don’t think worries that the government might... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal drama, weak regional recovery Fears that Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes (the linchpin of the government’s reform agenda), might resign have flared up again this week, and we think that there is now a political risk... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s reform agenda on the ropes, Covid-19 vaccine A growing dispute over the direction of policymaking in Brazil threatens to derail the reform agenda and worsen the country’s public debt problem. Meanwhile, in a rare piece of good news for the... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & Ecuador’s debt deals, Brazil’s recovery Governments in both Argentina and Ecuador managed to reach debt restricting deals with bondholders this week but, in both cases, it looks like unlikely that debt will be sustainable over the medium... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
