Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB in a tight spot, bailout for Pemex? Brazil’s central bank is in a quandary. The market fallout after this week’s 150bp rate hike suggests investors didn’t think it went far enough to quash concerns about fiscal risks and rising... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, Brazil fiscal worries mounting This week marked the two-year anniversary of the mass protests in Chile which caused a political risk premium to emerge in local financial markets and the currency, and we think that lingering... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly The fiscal risk of rising rates, Mercosur tariff cuts Central banks were once again in the spotlight this week after the supersized 125bp rate hike in Chile, but one issue that is often overlooked is the damaging impact of rising interest rates on public... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Evergrande fallout on Lat Am, Peronist infighting Fears over Chinese property giant Evergrande rocked global markets earlier this week and Latin American economies, particularly Chile and Peru, are among the most exposed in the world to problems in... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s PASO surprise, Pemex debt The loss for Argentina’s ruling Peronists in the open primary (PASO) for mid-term legislative elections in November suggest that the political tides might be shifting and boosted local financial... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery worries, hawks fly in Chile The disappointing economic data out of Brazil this week has cast some clouds over the economy’s recovery prospects. As it happens, we think that GDP growth will pick up quite strongly in Q3, but we’re... 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil at breaking point, Argentina’s SDRs, Chile pensions Brazil’s institutional crisis took a turn for the worse this week, and points to an environment in which fiscal risks will grow and the economic reform agenda will be put on the backburner. Elsewhere... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly More fiscal worries in Brazil, the regional re-opening Worries about a worsening of Brazil’s fiscal position in the run-up to next year’s general elections have continued to build, and we think there may now be a fiscal risk premium of about 50bp embedded... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Chile GDP, central bank hawks, Brazil’s meteor This week’s strong activity data from Chile reaffirms our long-held optimism over its economic recovery, and will probably cause the central bank to adopt a more hawkish stance. Other central banks in... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Worrying signs from Castillo, regional re-opening The first steps from Peru’s newly-inaugurated President, Pedro Castillo, provide plenty of worrying signs for investors and suggest that local financial markets will remain on the back foot. Meanwhile... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Delta despairs, Bolsonaro’s giveaways The third virus wave currently underway in Mexico, driven by the contagious Delta variant, will probably weigh on activity this quarter. But, for now, we don’t think that it will derail the economic... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
